Macri does not rule out that humanitarian aid to Venezuela fractures the support of the Maduro Army

Donald Trump has decided to use humanitarian aid to break the loyalty of Venezuelan generals and to force the resignation of Nicolás Maduro, who has always favored the Vatican's and the European Union's willingness to negotiate, Cuba's military support and the financial and economic support of China and Russia.

The United States collects tons of food and medicine from Venezuela, while the White House negotiates with some Maduro Generals opening a humanitarian corridor this allows to distribute this solidarity support without interference from the civil and military apparatus that responds to the populist regime.

Mauricio Macri receives daily reports on the situation in Venezuela and presumes that Maduro's political situation will deteriorate when he will have to decide to allow boxes from the US Agency for Development (USAID) ) who are waiting in Cúcuta (Colombia) to meet the food, medical and hygiene needs faced by millions of Venezuelans. The Argentine President does not rule out the sending of a delegation of White Helmets to the territory to collaborate in the distribution of humanitarian aid this will multiply over the weeks.

In Venezuela, there is no food, medicine or items for personal hygiene. Everything is on the black market, controlled by the officials of the populist administration. People are dying for lack of medicine and have little to eat in the face of the economic situation affecting the Maduro government. There is a serious shortage that already implies an unprecedented humanitarian crisis for the history of Venezuela.

In this context, Maduro faces a political dilemma: If you accept the help prepared by USAID, acknowledge the humanitarian crisis. And if it persists in its refusal, the acting president, Juan Guaidó, will ask the armed forces to collaborate in the distribution of kits containing food, medicines and hygiene items already stored in Cúcuta ( Colombia). Venezuelan generals responded and a positive response would put Maduro on the precipice of politics.

Trump does not want a diplomatic status quo following the various negotiations opened since the beginning of the year. The President of the United States looks forward to the resistance of the populist regime and the time of multilateral diplomacy – the Lima group, the European Union with Uruguay, Pope Francisco and the Cubans – and wants to move relentlessly to Caracas to overthrow Maduro, impose a conjunctural government and demand free and transparent elections.

In this quasi-military strategy, Trump has no regional allies. Brazil and Argentina only support the peaceful solution of the crisis in Venezuela and in Washington, you already know that Jair Bolsonaro and Macri will not accept any American adventure in Venezuela. Mercosur's two partners believe that this hypothesis of conflict opens the way to a low-intensity war with death in the streets and at an open end.

But Trump does not sleep and his White House advisers have two alternative plans to overthrow Maduro in the coming weeks. Engage Maduro's generals in the distribution of humanitarian aid and eventually overthrow the Venezuelan leader who had refused to deliver the USAID cartons, or wait for interim president to call for US intervention to get food and medicines to Venezuela. Trump plays with these two alternatives, and we already know that he is a global leader with little patience to wait for the times of cooperation and foreign relations.

The Lima group explained that it did not accept the US military adventure in Venezuela. And this eventual initiative is not supported by the European Union (EU), the Organization of American States (OAS) and the United Nations (UN). However, faced with a local dynamic forced by populist generals or at the request of Guaidó, the international system could do nothing to face the fait accompli. Nothing stopped the invasion of Grenada, Panama and Iraq, despite diplomatic questions in the United Nations Security Council.

Then, from information from Washington, New York, Paris, Havana, Caracas, Montevideo and Buenos Aires, the roadmap appears with some precision: there will be a meeting at the OAS of the countries that support Guaidó to explain the humanitarian crisis that crosses Venezuela. Trump will insist that the USAID boxes be sent to Venezuelan territory. The interim government will ask populist generals to confront Maduro and distribute humanitarian aid. Guaidó will mobilize the barracks, or the border with Colombia to collect US aid, or request foreign intervention. And Maduro must decide to repress, to accept the move of the White House or to face its military leaders.

Venezuela in its labyrinth. There is no exit in sight.