Maduro's regime is about to collapse. What will happen now?

Venezuela is in a pre-transition phase. The aggravation of all the parameters of civilized coexistence has left little room for consultation exercises. The word "dialogue" or the concept of conversation with a blank road map has been overcome by the excitement of circumstances, there is no margin for a solution that does not immediately imply the end of the regime led by Nicolás Maduro. Instead of dialogue, it seems more appropriate to talk about negotiation, the purpose of which would be to agree on the terms of the transition and to avoid the risk of bloodshed. and even civil war. The negotiation with Maduro concerns his departure from power.

For the opposition, the transition will begin when the usurpation of Nicolás Maduro ceases and the conditions and date of the presidential elections will be agreed. The representative of the National Assembly before the Lima group, Julio Borges, pointed out that the initiative of Mexico and Uruguay on Venezuela was only a delaying maneuver which aimed to prolong the agony and give oxygen to the diet through a cosmetic outlet. In the same vision, the same Venezuelan church recognizes that neither a mediation of Pope Francis would be viable. Cardinal Baltazar Porras said that the possibility of diplomatic action by the Holy See to close positions had been exhausted two years ago due to the lack of will of the Venezuelan regime.

Unfortunately, this is a face-to-face scenario. If the armed forces continue to support Nicolás Maduro in China, by funding the dictatorship and Russia, by supplying weapons and military equipment, the end will be slower and probably facing painful clashes. If, on the contrary, with pragmatism, China and Russia align themselves with the majority opinion of the international community and the armed forces recognize the limits of the situation, a peaceful solution is finally possible. to install a transitional government that allows democratic restoration through free, transparent and credible elections with international verification.

The agreed transition, integrated by the opposition and Chavez forces, would remove some of the traces of polarization and guide Venezuela towards a more promising future. There is a useful history of countries from similar tragedies. Poland, for example, succeeded in 1989, thanks to an agreement between the communist government and Solidarity, which resulted in a democratic process, calling for free elections and guiding the country from the disaster to a deep economic reform. After the badogy with Poland, Venezuela seems to have reached the same critical point of the Polish process, where all opposing parties may have good reason to accept and end the dictatorship. The survival of the exercise, even to avoid revanchisms according to the South African example, will require strategic patience and diplomatic skills.

It is time for all, especially the United States, Russia and China, as well as the countries of the Lima Group or those gathered in Montevideo, to vouch for this possibility, help put an end to international economic sanctions and contribute in the formulation of a program. stabilization so that Venezuela can again benefit from the democratic and economic conditions it deserves.