At the beginning of the campaign, a new IMF mission arrives in Argentina

The new mission of the International Monetary Fund in Argentina will take place from Monday, in unknown territory. The IMF technicians led by economist Roberto Cardarelli will arrive in Buenos Aires at a time when pre-election armed forces are speeding up, polls show data that worries Casa Rosada and the opposition as a whole reject the terms of the agreement as it was signed in the middle of 2018, and this will be extended into the next government administration.

This does not seem to be the best context, although the hope of the Fund's technicians – and Nicolás Dujovne's team – is that At least a nascent reactivation of the economy is starting to be felt from April onwards., pulled by the harvest. The two things go hand in hand: the continuity of the program, as well as its straightforward implementation, is starting to become a central concern of the IMF offices in Washington. And this continuity, they interpret, could be linked to the electoral success of Mauricio Macri in October.

In the multilateral credit agency does not hide the concern. Alejandro Werner, chief economist for the Western Hemisphere, said bluntly when asked last month about the future of the agreement after the elections . In Argentina, as in any emerging country, he said, "a political turnaround and a major change in the economic direction have always represented a considerable risk".

After the start of the review this Monday, Cardarelli and his team – the third up to now – the Fund is expected to spend just over $ 10 billion. And that there are two other disbursements before the presidential elections if the program advances are approved by the IMF's board of directors. As a result, the government will have received most of the $ 57.1 billion loan, agreed at the cost of an adjustment that will continue to govern from 2020.

For Kirchnerism, this is simply unacceptable. In the mbadismo, they maintain that, as it is written, the agreement is "unachievable", as he entrusted to Infobae a leader close to Sergio Mbada, principal point of reference of the Peronism which declares itself still not Christian. If the electrocardiogram of the economy does not show fast vital signs, the campaign will reverse more and more the program signed in the IMF offices and the social cost of the cuts.

Cardarelli could hold meetings with opposition leaders during his mission to Argentina. There is no meeting on the agenda of the Fund's envoy, but last week, the agency indicated its willingness to continue these discussions outside the company. 39, priority axis of the visit, namely the revision of the figures of the economy and the officials of Dujovne at the Ministry of Economy and Guido at the Central Bank.

During his last visit, three months ago, the chef de mission for Argentina met Mbada and a good part of his team. Among the participants were Marco Lavagna, Diego Bossio, Graciela Camaño, José Ignacio De Mendiguren and Aldo Pignanelli. There were many explanations and a verdict that has not changed since. "We told him that this agreement was not feasible for the country," they told Infobae. "We hope that he will also meet other political actors so that anyone who considers the agreement as unsustainable can say so honestly and honestly," said one source.

At the IMF, they are well aware of the opposition's point of view and also seek to take the pulse of society by organizing meetings with other social sectors, as benchmarks for business, academia and civil society, which are also of concern. A third meeting with representative organizations is scheduled for the 20th of this month towards the end of the mission.

In the first two cases, the civil society informed Cardarelli of its concerns about the social impact of the central Bank's severe monetary policy to fight against inflation and cuts in spending to balance the budget. . In an election year, these effects will be an important political contribution. Maybe the main thing.