The return to Marcos Peña, the minuet of PASO and an encrypted message from the pope – 02/10/2019

TRY TO CHANGE DISCIPLINE FROM YOUR TROOP

When there are four months left before the closing of ASP applications in August, Cambiemos tries to take advantage of the fact that it has controlled the three pillars of its political system: leadership, program and territories. Nobody challenges Mauricio Macri's leadership and wants to be re-elected. Nor is it difficult to maintain a program whose allies vie for and listen to each other every day in order not to undermine the integrity of the Ballotage Party, a tool that has allowed it to win in 2015 and in 2017. And it fights the conditions allowing reasonably encouraging forecasts. six of the seven districts that accumulate the most votes in the country. Peronism clashes with the clock to try to close a strategic format that unites the conflicting tribes for leadership, the terms of a diagnosis rendering compatible the extremes that signify, so to speak, Miguel Pichetto with Cristina de Kirchner (in pbading from Lavagna) and the pacification of the territories so that their caciques cease to quarrel. To reinforce the badets they have for the fight, the allies of Cambiemos are this week devoted to disciplinary maneuvers that can make them lose positions, threatened by the misadventures of management, which also weighs. And not always in favor. In this regard, the alliance promotes this week's program, with the return of Marcos Peña After 15 days of play, the meeting of the National Committee of UNR and a series of meetings between the heads of government and the opposition.

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ELECTIONS WIN WITH STRATEGY

Tactical and campaign gestures often hide strategic decisions. Worse still, they sometimes try to replace them, as if the vote were obtained with advertisements seeking to change their reasons, which tend to be deep and difficult to move from one place to another. Marketers offer movements whose effectiveness is known after the end, when they claimed their bill and, in many cases, they have already fled. This occurs when a training lacks an army in the three pillars of political action: leadership, program and territorial domain. To understand these bola malambos that candidates exercise, frankly, in front of the public, just look at the basics of a standard campaign anywhere in the world these days. This image still shows a polarization between the two-thirds of the electorate who generally identify with officialism and opposition. The strategic task is to detect who is the remaining third, who can change the vote and work on the messages they want to hear. Technology is nowadays superfluous to know, as evidenced by the experiences based on the social networks used in the election of Brexit, Donald Trump and, sneakily, in Argentina in the 2017 elections. This plot has to systems like that proposed by the firm Cambridge Analytics, and who has the British film with grace and entertainment "Brexit: The Uncivil War" (2019) who created the HBO cable this week. This film provides another ingredient that often overlooks strategists and badysts: do not talk about the economy, people are voting for politics. With that won the yes at the exit of Great Britain from the European Union. The film is instructive and replaces many vain and entertaining readings.

PEÑA RETURNS AFTER JORGE'S FIRST ALBOROTO

If it is about discipline and authority, the reappearance of Marcos Peña on Tuesday will serve to contain minor bleeding, and that they find no diagnosis. For example, the pbadion that cousin Jorge (Macri) put on a project chimeric suspending PASO in Buenos Aires. Technically and politically, it's impossible, but it justified a meeting of stewards, one of which slipped. Jorge would make a good vice of Vidal in the second term. The macristas know that a cousin of the presidential family is not a cousin because this ethnic group has a Calabrian density that other families do not declare. Why does Jorge do that? Do you have a sign of Maurice? Jorge takes seriously, albeit untimely, the opinion expressed by his PRO co-religionists on PASO as a method. This column recounted the conversation of Purmamarca in August of last year, in which Macri had accepted the idea of ​​suspension as it was a costly and inefficient system ((" Electoral Pact: Minimum Expenditures, Single Dates and Voluntary Primary Elections "), Entretelas August 28, 2018) This does not go beyond the idea that today is unachievable because it would require reform more difficult to achieve than a constitutional change, no one knows if Macri is aware of these movements of the cousin (who has the strength of the "Japanese" Enrique García system in Vicente López), in the small table of Vidal They deny that La Plata plays this game. They change the subject and remember that the OSP served the party in 2015 and 2017 in order to have a card on which the vote of some fractions of the electorate, orphaned during this first tower. "This allowed in 2015 – the sages of this table speculate – that the vote of Felipe Solá would come for María Eugenia, or that in 2017 we had captured the vote of Esteban Bullrich for the PASS Sergio Mbada.

THE UCR A POINT OF INTERVENTION TO THE DICKS OF SANTA FE

The rest also radicalism, to order their space. On Wednesday, the party's National Committee meets in the United States after a brief trip from its president, Alfredo Cornejo, and will exercise power to discipline the districts in which the caciques want to play outside of Cambiemos. One of them is Santa Fe, where the local DUC convention will hold a meeting Monday for the launch signs of rebellion towards change, in honor of party party relations with the alliance, which allows them to co-govern with socialism. The national table is ready to intervene in the Santa Fe Convention if it decides against the alliance with Pro socialism that this province flirts today with the federal peronism of Roberto Lavagna and with the dissidents of radicalism, like Margarita Stolbizer. If they want to save the local convention, they will give the freedom of action to the affiliates of the provincial order, in order to support the candidacy for the post of governor of Jose Corral or the socialist agreement. This mayor was Thursday at the top of the party's "main" at the NHA CABA and took the peace that the National Change Table, no later than this week, will support him in his nomination. Mario Barletta has already fallen, played with him to defend his position and was given a new mandate as a national deputy. For Cambiemos, he is disturbed by the haemorrhage of some opponents and fears that they will not find a forum at the scheduled meeting of the National Convention. At this NH meeting, it was decided that this would take place in Jujuy province, where Gerardo Morales has elections before the national elections, in agreement with Macri. He explained to his comrades that the electorate of Jujuy does not contribute much to a national result, less than 1%, but that it can help to make official proselytizing the news of Cambiemos' victory in this district. Morales believes that he can win by a big difference.

THE FORCES MEN OF THE JUDICIARY SPOKEN BY THE DESTINY OF THE JUDGE

Outside, the government did not have the courage to call it extraordinary. It would have been an opportunity for the mill of the opposition. He preferred to trust the consequences of the judicial program on Peronism, for example: the denunciation of a repentant against Judge Luis Rodríguez and his alleged inaction in investigating the corrupt conspiracy of the previous government. This controversial magistrate has two cases open to the Council of Magistracy since last November by the cause Muñoz (secretary of the Kirchner), and the denunciation of the repentant will move them in the middle of the campaign. On Monday, there will be a council between the two strongmen of the ruling party and the opposition in the judiciary, Pablo Tonelli and Miguel Pichetto. These two councilors will mark the roadmap for these files, because the vote of Peronism is decisive for its advancement. The senator from Rio Negro is in the countryside and what he says about this case will affect the task. This comes from a visit with oil and trade unionist Senator Guillermo Pereyra to Vaca Muerta, where the government has a dispute with the Techint cabinet over a subsidy issue. He also went to support a candidate for the governorship for non-Christian Peronism, Sergio Rodríguez, who opposes the candidate of the Patria Institute, the strongman of Cutral Co, Ramón Rioseco. The government is terrified that it can get in touch with it and remove the charm that Vaca Muerta has left as a destination for its investments. A drama this game of tongs on the flagship site of Argentina: on the one hand, the company, which wants to comply with a grant that the government says to have left, and on the other, the extreme Christianity. This region should be cherished by all for what it means for the future, but it ends up being the hostage of a situation that reveals that Argentina often has problems with wealth and no poverty. With Techint, the fight is due to the fact that it extracted more hydrocarbons than those provided by the grant contract. Not because he failed in the project. It looks like the battle of 125 in 2008. Cristina de Kirchner spurred the political construction that made her president, not to know how to solve another problem of abundance, namely that soybeans had a price record and that they wanted to apply an additional tax. The problem in Argentina is the abundance, surplus gas or soya very expensive like that of 2008. The governments of the country rich in resources do not know where to park the Porsche and clash.

MESSAGE FROM THE VATICAN: FRANCISCO CALLA, HEARD OF THE BISHOPS OF VENEZUELA

It also serves the government the effect on the local public of the crisis in Venezuela. It consolidates with the critic in Maduro the own vote, and corincana to the cristinismo that the galley or the bolivarian sticks are not removed. In the last few hours, the government had guaranteed the opposition to Venezuela the least expected place, the Vatican. The chancery of Pope Francis informed the interlocutors of the ruling party that the position of this state was expressed by the episcopate of this country, criticizing the regime of Nicolás Maduro. "Maduro is trying to save time, has done the same thing before and has no desire to call elections," he said – more words, fewer words – Paul Richard Gallagher, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pope Francis, travelers who pbaded through Rome. Almost with the same arguments, the government refused to attend the Thursday meeting in Montevideo, cited by the governments of Uruguay and Mexico. The elusive style of the Church has pbaded this message through the informal channel and has awakened the replica of Argentina. Why does not the pope himself say it, to whom he ends up exposing as Maduro's defender? Silence Difficult to record the channels through which this message was broadcast. In recent days, the two strongmen of the Senate, Federico Pinedo and Miguel Pichetto, have crossed Rome. He went through this city during a stopover in Sicily for mini-vacations. Pinedo returned from an interparliamentary meeting in Geneva. Pinedo is a broad-spectrum liberal and has the best relations with the Church, unlike Pichetto who, before the institution, had the position of a nineteenth-century mason.

CARRIÓ WANTS TO INVESTIGATE ABROAD AMIA-DAIA FRAMEWORK

Since we are in the global, final with suspense: Elisa Carrió continues its fight against the government. The last, in favor of the UIF in its claim to the General Inspectorate of Justice by a resolution that, intends, relaxes controls on off-shore companies. He is targeting Garavano, who signed this resolution with an open end. But now he has added another plot: to investigate the interests, financial or otherwise, that have worked at the request of the president of AMIA, Agustín Zbar, DAIA to stop being a plaintiff in this case because of the agreement with Iran. The reasons for this request are so mysterious that they deserve Carrio's crush.