Private project: decline in employment and wages in 2019

After 2018, when social and social indicators collapsed, various consultants projected a further decline in private employment and real wages for 2019.

Between March and November 2018 (latest data available from SIPA), 136,000 registered private jobs were lost. And purchasing power fell by 13.8% year-on-year in November, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census.

In this context, a report from the Capital Foundation to which BAE Business has subscribed believes that a certain 0.5% job loss over one year and 0.9% decrease in purchasing power.

"The contraction in economic activity that will continue during the first months of the year (-3.1% in the first half) will continue to have a negative impact on an already weak labor market. ", said Martín Redrado, consultant who envisioned that the bulk of the contraction will be concentrated during the first half.

He added: "Although the contraction in activity began in the 2nd quarter of 2018, the impact on the labor market is lagging behind. Employment does not react immediately to changes in the labor market. economic activity ".

In addition, the Capital Foundation provides for a lower purchasing power of 4.4% in the first half and insufficient recovery of 3% in the second.

According to BAE Business, Ecolatina subscribes to the diagnosis, but anticipates an even lower average wage rate of 3%.

The EIT, although it does not make a numerical projection, estimates a similar scenario: "It is likely that in the coming months, the purchasing power will recover from the current floor (the lowest since 2009 ), although it is very difficult to return to the average, short term, 2017 levels ".

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