Pope Francis and bridges in Venezuela

At the moment The eyes of the world are centered in Cúcuta, Colombia. The frontier hearth that was blocked by the government of Nicolás Maduro prevent the entry of the requested humanitarian aid Juan Guaidó to the international community. The International Red Cross, the International Rescue Committee, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the World Food Program are already on the border with Venezuela. They are waiting for permission and guarantees to enter, while many also doubt that their help will reach the needy or will be blocked by those who are loyal to Maduro, or if it will be confiscated.

Guaidó. Arm wrestling makes Guaidó a hopeful face for millions of people inside and outside Venezuela, doing what good sense and human demand. And he has the support of international support not to give in the political struggle with Maduro: the recognition of 47 countries has recently added support from 22 of the 28 countries of the European Union. And the determined position of the United States and the actions of the Trump administration protect it from a Venezuelan command fearing reprisals: with regard to humanitarian aid, the Secretary of State of the United States United States, Mike Pompeo, promised that he would "pbad yes or yes," implying that all options are open, including the use of force.

(Also read: humanitarian aid is Guaidó's Trojan Horse)

Support for Maduro is rare. With 85% of the population against, he is loyal to an increasingly smaller core of armed forces and security., neighborhood paramilitaries, known as colectivos, and Cuban intelligence and action troops, who are fiercely intimidating and repressing opponents. From the international point of view, few countries recognize it. And they have special interests, be they ideological, strategic or economic. China, Russia and Cuba stand out, while the Vatican's dialogue position, the UN Secretary General, as well as the Mexico At least they are a topic of discussion.

Especially since the social context is devastating. The latest data have been shown repeatedly that at this stage, defending the Maduro regime seems an attitude without morality or rationality: It is estimated that the number of Venezuelans malnourished reaches 3.7 million and that 3 million have already emigrated.

(Read also: Crisis in Venezuela: global hypocrisy)

Partners Support from Russia and China is based on strategic and economic reasons. The two powers are seeking greater penetration in Latin America. In addition, Russia is the main arms supplier and is now directly involved in the oil sector, with a 49.9% stake in CITGO, the Venezuelan oil company. China, for its part, is the main creditor of the regime and, in the absence of Venezuela's ability to pay, takes control of the material badets of the oil industry. However, it is possible that the support of both does not exceed the declarative, as long as their direct economic interests are preserved.

At the regional level, the rhetoric of countries and movements with ideological affinities such as Bolivia, Cuba or Nicaragua and the parties of the San Pablo Forum is not surprising. The most striking case may be that of Uruguay, which, although endowed with a government with a socialist connotation, is far from these examples. Behind that, we see family businesses that leave the president unhappy Tabaré Vázquez, forced in recent days to take clearer positions in the dispute: Maduro is trying to transfer about 1200 million dollars from an account in Uruguay, reason why Guaidó expressly asked the Uruguayan government not to l 39; allow.. This request is in line with the initiative approved by the National Assembly asking 46 countries that do not allow the regime to dispose of Venezuela's resources in their territories. The Bank of England has set an excellent precedent in this regard, retaining $ 1,200 million in gold.

Francisco Maduro is facing a zero sum game. In these circumstances, he asked the dad Francisco – who is already accused of having favored by the action or omission the populist regimes, to act as a mediator to open a negotiating path with Guaidó.

The response of the Lima group was brutal and left the pope aside: there can be no channel for mediation or negotiation, since Maduro usurps power and manipulated various means to perpetuate it. The timing of the negotiations will come only when the parties, including the Vatican, recognize Guaidó as president.

But Guaidó was smart and did not exclude the papal intervention, which marked the conditions and the veedores: "I appeal to all those who can help us, as the Holy Father and all the diplomaties, so that they can collaborate for the end of the usurpation, for a transitional government and that lead to genuinely free elections "he said in an interview with the Italian television channel Sky24. The Vatican insisted in a statement that the pontiff "reserves the possibility of verifying the will of the Venezuelan government and the opposition to determine if the conditions of a possible mediation exist". The dad Francisco He feared again to be a tool of Maduro to buy time and doubts that Venezuela will convene new presidential elections.: offers the opportunity to advance parliamentary elections, which is an obvious attempt to gain time and representatives on their behalf. The roads shrink to Maduro and its dome.

* Expert in international security. President of the Foundation for the Non-Proliferation of Global Security (NPSGlobal).

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