What means does the Venezuelan army have to face an American intervention?

The threat of armed conflict hovers over

Venezuela

The president of the United States,

Donald Trump,

Repeatedly repeated that he did not rule out the military option of taking

Nicolás Maduro

power.

Maduro replied that if the intervention occurred, the Venezuelans would fight.

"We would have a hard time defending the right of our country to exist," he said recently.
interview with the BBC.

The United States, like the leading countries of the European Union and the majority of Latin Americans, support Juan Guaidó, the leader of the opposition who claims that Maduro is an illegitimate leader and has invoked the Constitution for swear in the position of "president in charge" of the country.

Maduro retains support from Russia, China, Bolivia and Cuba, among other states.

Guaidó announced that February 23 would begin to enter the country a "humanitarian aid" to face a crisis that the Maduro government denies and for which the United States and their allies promised donations.

But Maduro denounced Guaidó's goal of "presenting a non-existent humanitarian crisis in Venezuela" to justify foreign intervention and warned that the armed forces would defend the borders.

The tension increases.

Although the United States has so far taken care to bring their warnings beyond words, their eyes are focused on the Venezuelan army.

How will you react to the pressure? Do you have the ability to deal with a possible US attack?

Who are the Venezuelan army?

According to data from the Ministry of Defense, the Bolivarian national armed forces number between 95,000 and 150,000 members, a figure to which members of the national militia, a parallel body that has been described as paramilitary by detractors of the volunteer organization baduming various functions in the service of the State.

Militiamen receive weapons training and are equipped with old rifles that were once used in the army.

The national militia is based on the principle of "civil-military union", invented at the time by the late president

Hugo Chavez,

under which the whole society must complete the efforts of the army in "the defense of the nation".

Maduro maintained his commitment to the militia despite accusations that its implementation would be a militarization of civilian life. In January, she announced that she would reach two million activists by the month of April.

If confirmed, it would certainly be a large force, but doubts remain as to the number and quality of its armament and training.

The members of the National Guard are also members of the armed forces, a military body with functions of public order and security of citizens very familiar to Venezuelans, because the National Guard is the one that most frequently monitors the streets and highways from the country.

He was also very active in the dispersal of opposition protests, particularly violent in 2017, and its unfolding was the subject of controversy.

There are no official figures on the total troops that would add the army, the National Guard and the National Militia.

With what means it matters

After Chávez came to power, thanks to the explosion of oil revenues in the first decade of the 21st century, Caracas undertook an ambitious renovation of the armed forces, whose main suppliers were Russia and China.

Russia has supplied several models of aircraft and helicopters for years, as well as tanks and artillery units.

His support became evident again last December, when he transferred to Venezuela two modern bombers with a Tu-160 nuclear capability to operate jointly with Venezuelan aviation, which provoked protests from the United States. State Department of the United States.

But the big Russian contribution to Venezuelan deterrence has been the sale of Su-30Mk2 fighter jets, experts say, a device that can compete with the most advanced American fighter jets thanks to its firepower, maneuverability and speed. performance.

The Russians also provided anti-aircraft missile systems and Chinese radars that helped establish what the Infodefensa specialized portal described as "the best aerospace defense system in the Latin American region" .

During the Chavismo years, a fleet was also renewed, with its epicenter at the Puerto Cabello naval base on the north coast of the country, and a recent incident with a ship of the American oil company Exxon Mobil while It operated in a zone Venezuela is disputed with neighboring Guyana.

Considering all its human and technical resources, the Global Firepower website has ranked Venezuela in 2018 as the 46th highest ranking country in the world with the largest military strength.

The bad news for Maduro and his team is that the United States remains at the forefront.

What is your real capacity?

Since the beginning of the last political crisis, Maduro has multiplied acts with the army and praises again and again the capacity of the armed forces.

Coinciding with the diplomatic escalation with the United States, he organized large-scale military exercises that he described as "the most important in history."

This is to emphasize the functioning of the army at a critical moment.

A foreign military expert in Caracas, who asked not to be identified, told BBC Mundo that "there is a lot of doubt about the actual operational capability of the equipment because of the lack of" 39 "interview", another consequence of the serious economic crisis that the country is going through.

The shortage of spare parts is visible even in the so-called La Carlota airbase, in the heart of Caracas, where stationed helicopters suffer from what is called in the jargon "cannibalization", namely the # 39; equipment use good condition for the repair of other damaged.

"In recent years, they have tried to make sure that the Russians and the Chinese are engaged in maintenance, but the problem is that they can no longer pay anyone," said L & # 39; expert.

"The Russians relied heavily on Venezuela, but they found that they were not asking for anything."

Among the unfinished projects with Russia is the Kalashnikov rifle factory, under construction for years in the city of Maracay. The government plans to leave arms to the military and the militia, but none of this has materialized to date.

Lack of repairs and spare parts becomes a particularly serious problem for older equipment, such as the French-made Super Puma transport helicopters or F-16 American-made fighter jets, which were acquired prior to the triumph of the Bolivarian Revolution . in 1998 and those that do not seem to have been updated in view of the time that has elapsed.

Would they fight for Maduro?

Since

Guaidó

He launched a challenge to Maduro and launched all this mess. The Venezuelan opposition has launched an intense call for uniforms so that they withdraw their support for the socialist leader and "stand on the side of the Constitution".

But although the troop suffers from shortages and hyperinflation like the rest of the Venezuelans, the cascade defections planned by some did not occur.

Despite the unconfirmed allegations of allegations of mbad arrests of Maduro management's unsatisfied soldiers, statements of loyalty to the "constitutional president" are reflected in the Twitter accounts of the strategic operational command of the armed forces and the ministry of the defense.

If, like many of them, in the United States also, the support of the high command in Maduro cracks, the cracks are until now perceptible.

The reasons for the military attachment to the government are diverse.

Observers who claim that Chavismo has since its birth an essential political system and military origin are not lacking.

Not in vain, its founder, Hugo Chávez, was a commander of the army.

As Cristina Marcano wrote in a recent article in the newspaper El País, "the army does not only support the regime, it is a fundamental factor of the regime".

Marcano recalled that when Chavez arrived at the presidency, uniforms began to occupy the highest positions of the administration and public companies.

Admiral Craig Faller, head of the US Army's Southern Command, told a Senate committee in his country that Venezuela had about 2,000 generals, more than any other country in the world. # 39; NATO.

For Faller, "the majority is on Maduro's salary" and illegal companies are involved, including the drug smuggling and smuggling of gasoline, with which the Bolivarian leader, said Faller, "buys his loyalty".

The truth is that, as in other countries where politics has a strong military component, such as Cuba or Egypt, the military institution controls much of Venezuela's economy.

When he became president, Maduro created what he called the military-socialist economic zone, an exclusively military business development plan, which seemed to mimic the model of the business administration group ( Gaesa) by which the Cuban armed forces reserve the management of a large part of the state revenues that tourism and other activities leave on the island.

Maduro also entrusted PDVSA, a state oil company, with the bulk of the country's exports to a general.

Whether sentimental, ideological or economic, the links of the military high command with the president have been more powerful than the calls to change sides of their rivals.

So, could I resist?

Ted Galen Carpenter, a defense and foreign policy expert at the Cato Institute's badysis center, told BBC World that "although there is evidence of an internal division, at least some units would fight a US intervention."

Although it can not be very specific about the strength of this resistance: "It's what the US intelligence services are trying to discover, but discovering is not so easy".

Carpenter warned in his country that, despite its overwhelming superiority over paper, the use of force to decant the Venezuelan crisis could be very expensive and lead to many American lives lost.

"Nobody can face the United States in an open confrontation, but Maduro still has a hard core of supporters and what the Venezuelans could do, is to oppose a guerrilla war."

"It can also be very effective," he warned.

Words such as those of this badyst take away from the collective American consciousness the memory of the war in Iraq or Vietnam, during which the army of stars and stripes suffered many losses while attempting to Imposing political change in distant countries.

Maduro himself agitated the ghost of Vietnam in an attempt to dissuade the White House from using arms: "Venezuela would become a Vietnam if Donald Trump one day sent the US military to attack us," he said. predicted.

To date, Washington's headquarters in Maduro is strictly diplomatic and Trump, despite his statements, remains reluctant to engage US troops in missions abroad.

If for many Vietnam was the endless war of the United States, Venezuela is for the moment the war that never began.