The echoes of the Venezuelan crisis, a double-edged sword for the campaigns of Macri and Cristina

According to badysts, the loss of prestige Maduro benefits Cambiemos, but a military intervention would harm him

The dramatic crisis that is going through

Venezuela

it is a mirror in which Argentina frequently observes. The Bolivarian regime is not a government: it is a central ally of the Kirchner and the adversary who

Mauricio Macri

he had a habit of positioning himself in the area and on which he will insist to conduct this campaign, as he had planned in the interview that he granted to LA NACION.

Therefore, the situation in Venezuela will have its correlate in the elections of 2019. The experts predict that Macri will benefit if the loss of prestige of the

Nicolás Maduro

. But in case of foreign military intervention to support

Juan Guaidó

the Kirchner areas could benefit.

"Kirchnerism has always been very close to the Bolivarian regime and is less critical, while the Elector of Macri is ideologically different, he is more critical of populism and believes that Argentina could have fallen into a similar situation to that of Venezuela if it did not win Macri, "explained political badyst Sergio Berensztein at LA NACION.

A study by D & # 39; Alessio-Irol and Berensztein reflects these differences between pro-government voters and those of Kirchner. 17% of those who voted for

FPV

and they would opt for an authoritarian regime preferring regimes like Venezuela or Cuba. Although nobody near

change

manifest this possibility. In addition, only 5% of voters in Kirchner want Venezuela to be permanently expelled from the OAS. Among the voters of Cambiemos, 41% are in favor of expulsion.

As a result, Macri will seek to take advantage of the anti-retreat nature of its constituents. And Kirchnerism, however, join Maduro could cause him difficulties to obtain key votes.

"Macri is doing what his constituents expect of him on this issue, it's a subject he could use in his favor, since he does not have so much in favor." If Kirchner is still badociated with the Venezuelan label cost to walk in the middle and urban sectors that must win the elections, "said Juan Negri, doctor of political science and university professor Di Tella and Unsam.

"The Argentinian public opinion is critical of the Venezuelan regime, and supporting Maduro does not make Kirchner lose the Kirchner, but prevents him from winning independent votes, which are the ones who decide to win. Election, especially the second round, "he said. political scientist Rosendo Fraga, director of the Nueva Mayoría research center.

But there is one factor that could tip the balance in favor of Kirchnerism: it is a possible military intervention.

"It's better adapted to change in the sense of showing extreme examples of authoritarian populism, fueling fear and crack, fear of eventual return to Kirchnerism." discontent towards Maduro even in the sectors that criticize him, because anti-imperialism appears, "said Berensztein.

"Violence in the repression of demonstrations can hurt those who support Maduro in Argentina, but if there was a foreign military intervention in Venezuela, it could hurt those who support Guaidó," Fraga acknowledged.

It should be recalled that President Macri offered his support to Guaidó, while several leaders of Kirchner spoke in favor of Nicolás Maduro. Cristina remained silent. "He did not speak out, consistent with his strategy of silence aimed at reducing the level of rejection," Fraga observed. But they warn that it could be at a crossroads: "Cristina is going to be in a plot, she does not want to be badociated with Venezuela, but the past between her, Chávez and Maduro exists," concluded Negri.