Crisis in Venezuela: What risks does Colombia take as the "center of operations" of the crusade against Nicolás Maduro?

In recent weeks, Colombia has become the epicenter of the international crusade against the government of Nicolás Maduro.

The same Colombian city received last Friday thirty artists who, along with the British billionaire Richard Branson, played a leading role in a media concert requiring the provision of so-called humanitarian aid.

The same day, the presidents of Chile, Sebastián Piñera, and Paraguay, Mario Abdo, landed in Cúcuta, and the president of the National Assembly of Venezuela (Congress), recognized by fifty countries as president of his country, Juan, appeared by surprise. Guaidó

For two weeks, the border town of Cucuta was the big donation warehouse sent by the United States and other countries with the aim of reaching Venezuela.

And the weekend was the battlefield on which trucks loaded with these donations and thousands of Venezuelan demonstrators tried unsuccessfully to break the military and police headquarters ordered by Nicolás Maduro.

As if that were not enough, Bogotá on Monday welcomed a new summit of the Lima group, a coalition of countries that do not recognize the Venezuelan government, with two unprecedented star guests: the Vice President of the United States, Mike Pence, and Guaidó.

The meeting ended with a new appeal to the international community to join forces to break the demand of the Venezuelan government and the International Criminal Court to "examine the serious humanitarian situation" in Venezuela.

The block also planned to hold Caracas responsible for any attack that could be the victim "president in charge".

Added to this is the severing of relations with Venezuela's Colombia, which puts the two countries in a situation of unprecedented tension since 2008, when Hugo Chávez and Álvaro Uribe organized a diplomatic crisis requiring the mediation of countries. of the region.

BBC Mundo has spoken with foreign relations experts who have claimed that Colombia has become the "center of operations" of the international crusade against Nicolás Maduro and the consequences that could have.

The risks

Political scientist and columnist Fernando Posada pointed out that Colombia's role in the Venezuelan crisis had become a protagonist and that it was not free.

"The sending of the help had an extremely political component and this has not been achieved has consequences and costs." Maduro was in a hurry from Colombia, but the goal was not achieved, "says the badyst.

Posada recognizes that Colombia is the leader of the so-called "diplomatic barrier" practiced by half a hundred countries to take all the oxygen from the Venezuelan government.

"Any outcome, be it positive or negative, will have serious consequences for the country." At the moment, for example, Colombia is likely to be exposed to armed conflict such as violence in the country. borders, "says the chronicler.

The tension at the border and its consequences difficult to anticipate are the greatest risks that Colombia runs according to the criteria of Posada.

"Everything changes in the scenario of military violence, it comes from the side that comes," he concludes.

Glory or …

"It can take you glory or defeat."

This is how political scientist Marcela Prieto describes the situation in which Colombia finds itself taking a leading role in the so-called "diplomatic seat" against the Venezuelan government.

"Taking leadership can lead to political attrition despite a mafia-like totalitarian regime, and a government with these levels of totalitarianism turns international action into a complex," said the researcher at BBC Mundo.

For the expert, the role that Colombia plays because of its geographical location and to be the most affected by the Venezuelan crisis is almost logical.

"The migration factor affects our own ability to provide basic goods and services to the population, the income of over a million people clearly affects us and makes us an interested party," Prieto said.

Finally, the badyst indicates that facts such as Colombia, custodian of hundreds of tons of humanitarian aid, further empower the country and the government of Iván Duque.

Head of Colombia?

Of Cúcuta, in one of the donations made by the United States. The previous week, US ambbadador Kevin Whitaker said Colombia had become the "world leader in the liberation of Venezuela."

President Iván Duque reiterated that his country would continue to provide all logistical support to "the humanitarian operation", even if it had not succeeded on 23 February.

Despite the risks observed, experts consulted by BBC Mundo agree that a possible outcome favorable to the international coalition against Chavismo would place Colombia and its president in a position of regional leadership.

"Colombia has taken an avant-garde position on the international scene, fighting for Venezuela's freedom," says badyst Marcela Prieto, adding that if this goal is achieved, the country will participate in the process. triumph.

At the same time, Fernando Posada pointed out that the Duque government had already made some practical progress in the context of these crises, such as hosting the Venezuelan military deserters, "something that Maduro should not like".

Polls from the last two weeks published in local media indicate that the Colombian president has gained several points of popularity, which is attributed to his active position on Venezuela (and his energetic speech against the guerrillas of the ELN) .

With Guaidó still in Colombian territory, Iván Duque urging the world to further tighten the "diplomatic barrier" and the tons of boxes and bags filled with food and food in Cúcuta, it seems difficult for this country to be excluded from the country. Equation of this happen to Venezuela, say the experts.

Moreover, they say, at this stage, any possible outcome will affect the spheres of power in Bogotá.