Argentina recorded a surplus of 36 million USD with Brazil in February

The triumph of the controversial Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential elections in Brazil had raised some concerns in Argentina, especially with regard to the early definitions of his future Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, who said that "Mercosur will not be a priority in the new agenda "of your country.

However, the experts agreed that, in the short term, the effects should be positive, alongside the reactivation of the region's largest economy and increased demand for domestic products.

And that's what statistics show: in January, the first month of "the Bolsonaro era", Argentina accumulated for the second consecutive month a favorable balance in the trade of goods, this which had not arrived since 2014: the favorable balance in January was 114 million USD, which contrasted sharply with the deficit of 478 million USD registered in the same month in 2018.

Y The month of February was also good news for the government: the exchange closed last month with a positive balance of $ 36 million.

"If we consider the red of more than 700 million US dollars in February 2018, we see a significant advance, due to exports which jumped by nearly 20% and imports which maintained their contractual dynamic, falling more than 40%, "said a report from Ecolatina.

As for sales to neighboring countries, they were driven by a Brazilian economy that is gradually accelerating its recovery. In fact, the market is forecasting GDP growth of 2% for the first quarter of 2019. This, coupled with an exchange rate which, despite the delay it posted in January and much of February, remains in a competitive area, according to the consultant.

In this context, the main growths were recorded in wheat (aided by a record crop) and barley, freighters, fuel and aluminum.

A report by the Argentine Chamber of Commerce (CAC) indicates that the main South American economy has performed well, since in the third quarter of 2018, GDP grew at a rate of 1.3%. A year on the other, mainly increased imports and investments, which increased by 13.5% and 7.8% respectively.

Imports, at the pace of the crisis

On the other hand, imports slowed down in February. However, according to Ecolatina, "the same is true, the sharp decline in real wages observed by our country hits the demand for finished products, while the economic recession weighs on the purchases of inputs, machinery and fuel" .

In this line, the heaviest falls occurred in vehicles, agricultural machinery, tires and auto parts.

Regarding the outlook, the consultant expected that for the rest of the year, the dynamics of improving the balance for Argentina would be maintained, more dictated by the dynamic local economy – recession and exchange rate increases – in relation to improved Brazilian demand. and relative appreciation of trade.

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