Chicago is a toboggan for soy

Pablo Adreani

The strong global dollar impacted grain prices in Chicago, with sharp declines in wheat and soybeans and smaller adjustments for corn.

In the case of soya, Wednesday was closed with significant negative signs, which resulted in the closure of Matba-Rofex. Available soybeans have already reached 229 dollars per ton and 9,300 pesos, after increasing the dollar. By writing this column, the US currency was exchanged yesterday at the National Bank at over 42 pesos.

The soybean price in Rosario, the situation can be excellent, closed at $ 231.5, while the soybean plant for the same position was worth $ 228.5. The future April position, for its part, quotes $ 226.

This is already expected in this same column several weeks ago, while in early January in Matba, soybeans available were valued at $ 248 and in May at $ 246. In two months, producers who still had soya, many in their pockets and who did not want to sell it while waiting for prices to rise, are now finding that their soy is worth $ 19 less. In a 200-tonne bag, the loss for not having sold at the time is $ 3,800, the equivalent of nearly 160,000 pesos.

In this sense, the behavior of the producer is very similar to that of a casino player. When he wins, he increases the number of chips in his hands, in which case the price of soybeans increases, and he does not take a profit when he wins. On the contrary, he ends up losing the chips when the dealer he sings several times the "0", the equivalent of soya that goes down.

In general, the producer never sells up, the highest sales volume of producers always occurs when the market drops.

This shows that the producer does not have a strategy to put a price on his crop. This is an issue that is not minor because the gain or loss of your business is set. The gross margin of a $ 250 soybean, as it was really long in the market, is not the same as a gross margin with a soybean of 226. And if the producer continues to doubt and does not sell, he will find with a price at 220 dollars. I understand that it is difficult to make a decision when the market is down, but not doing it when the market increases or is required is an irrational act from the economic point of view of the company. Nobody melted to earn a little. And as we say in our jargon: trees do not grow in the sky.

Something very similar is happening with wheat. In full harvest reaches 210 dollars and reaches 215 dollars in the availabilities. Today, in Rosario, it is quoted at 195 dollars, the position of May at 192.5 dollars and that of December at 170 dollars. We are before "the story of the lowest advertised", you just have to be more careful to make good sales decisions and not swallow the curve again (lower).