the strong commitment of the national government

An investigation has raised real concerns within the national government. One of the most recognized consultants has detected a crack in Cambiemos' main public work: Cristina's roof. Depending on the job, the proportion of people declaring that they would never vote would be reduced to 40%.

It is clear that January and February were not what President Mauricio Macri and his team had imagined. And the reason is exclusively economic: economic activity presented clear indicators of stress, in the retail trade, industry and construction sector.

Add to that the fact that inflation ended the first two months above 6%. All economic actors agree that the number was surprisingly high and exceeded the calculations of the private sector, but also those of the government. "It's true, it was a bit higher than we expected," they told the Ministry of Finance. "Nobody expected so much, it's a big mystery for everyone, even for the IMF", acknowledged La Nación, a former Macrista manager.

There is no chance on the reasons and the effects. While Minister Nicolás Dujovne attributed to the increase in meat and the effect of tariffs, among the private lor bind more to a late rearrangement of values ​​at 100% devaluation and – for some untimely announcement of the general rise in end-of-year services.

Orlando Ferreres even adds another factor that explains the commercial psychology of Argentina: instead of reducing prices, the drop in consumption leads entrepreneurs to put forward to maximize profits with fewer sales.

In finance, they badure that the values ​​will be welcomed from April to May, when service and transportation adjustments are complete, but private adjustments are more skeptical. The forecasts are already starting from an annual floor of 30%. "It will be more than the 23% budgeted, it may cost 29. The budget was prepared in August, with projections from that point on," the government said in the morning.

For the political and economic world, the increase of more than 6% of the dollar was not so worrying, if it is considered to be in compliance with inflation. The important thing was to revive this perception of vulnerability to the instability of global markets. There may have been an excess of anxiety in anticipating lower interest rates.

"We are structurally calm, we want to avoid volatility, but our program is not based on the exchange rate delay," he dramatized at the end of the week as an important official, in the straight line of what Dante Sica had said Thursday in public.

The government always argued that the economy would not win the electionbut that should not cause his defeat either. This threshold has again been questioned these days because the ghost of a crucial question has reappeared: Macri is he in total control of the economy, does he know where he is going? The weak voter of Cambiemos, who will continue to evaluate until the last moment he renews the loan, needs clear signals that current suffering makes sense. The government no longer reaches the words when it begins to filter the social bad mood, says the morning.

In this scenario, the oficialismo aims to campaign without giving in to the adjustment. "Even if we have elections, we can not stop the agreed program in September," said Dujovne.

To offset the effects of fiscal and monetary restraint, Hacienda prepares the "ideal semester" plan, which will run from May to October. For this, he seeks to match a series of economic variables that would generate a feeling of well-being with an anesthetic effect on the elector.

According to his estimates, inflation would be held back as the latest rate hikes will have an impact in April; there would be a resumption of purchasing power due to joint payments and pension updates; there would be no exchange rate volatility due to excess dollar disbursements from the IMF and the winding up of a record crop and a slight recovery in activity would be perceived, no only the countryside but also energy investments, transport and regional and even regional construction savings.

However, in the main ministries responsible for the functioning of the Argentine economy, they recognize that, if Macri wins the elections, his second term will require far-reaching reforms as the current model is not sustainable in the long term. Structural changes in the areas of labor, social security and taxation are on the horizon.

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