"Pessimists" think dollar will hit $ 53 this year

Although the latest forecast of the Focus Economics consensus by LatinFocus has not changed significantly, both in terms of GDP variation (recession) and the interest rate (which they still imagine is around 37%). 'here the end of the year), dollar – a key factor in Argentina – will have a rising scenario.

How much Although the average of the Latin Focus survey indicates that the exchange rate should close this year at 47.71 dollars (18 cents more than 30 days ago), some "dispersion" is beginning to come out.

There is a clearly "pessimistic" group that sees the dollar higher. In fact, the highest forecasts are for FyE Consult, which forecasts a dollar of $ 53.22 for December.

In this list, it follows:

-Fundación Capital (Martín Redrado), the British Standard Chartered Bank and Itaú BBA with a forecast of $ 50; like Capital Economics (from London).

A little further, we find Supervielle ($ 49.51), ABECEB (that of the current Minister of Production, Dante Sica) with $ 49.54 and BBVA Francés who estimates the dollar at $ 49.

"The most recent fall in the currency reflects higher-than-expected inflation.In January, growing domestic liquidity and investors worries about the difficult economic scenario in Argentina ahead of the October elections were the cause," says LatinFocus.

"Looking forward, the peso should depreciate further due to high inflation. Although the extent of its weakening should be reduced compared to last year thanks to the strict monetary policy of the Central Bank, "they said.

The other points of the report published Tuesday by the consultant are the following:

-The badysts consider that the economy is in recession. Y believe that this year will shrink by 1.1%, down 0.1 point from the previous month. They also see that the economy will recover in 2020 and increase by 2.5%.

-It is expected that inflation is 30.7% at the end of 2019, which represents a 1.9% increase over previous forecasts. The CPI is expected to fall to 20.8% by the end of 2020.

-On average, panelists participating in the LatinFocus forecasts see the LELIQ rate at 37.33% by the end of this year. They say next year will close at 25.97%.

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