"Venezuela, the last step": Barclays highlighted 11 keys that would anticipate the early "implosion" of Chavismo

Barclays, The London-based financial services company has released a new report in which it highlights eleven catalysts who would anticipate a rapid collapse of Nicolás Maduro's regime.

In recent months, the investment bank has reported to Venezuela a series of internal problems that "implosion"At the top of the Chavez government, a scenario that, according to banking research, could occur as soon as in the first quarter of 2019.

Then, the 11 threats facing the Venezuelan dictatorship:

1. "The current collapse of utilities and the supply of goods indicates that the scenario of implosion that we had predicted in previous reports and that could occur in the first quarter of 2019 could be In progress"

The financial institution has maintained its belief that the collapse of Nicolás Maduro's regime was an imminent event. According to the bank, "the country is approaching a level of ungovernability that could have serious undesirable consequences, to turn an unsustainable situation into an unbearable situation ". In this sense, the higher cost of maintaining the stability of a political system in the face of an energy crisis will help accelerate the final phase of the Chavez government.

2. "Power system failures persisted for five consecutive days"

Barclays cites the mbadive power outage currently occurring in the country as a high-risk threat to the oil production the regime uses to finance itself. "In the past, minor and shorter interruptions of these services [luz, agua, teléfono e Internet] have resulted in a drop in oil production of more than 100,000 b / d in a month, "said the bank.In this case, the effect could be much more important, since it should accelerate the loss of 700,000 b / d expected after the announcement of sanctions in January, in a trend around 500,000 b / d production."Despite the damage that oil losses could cause to oil deposits, the bank points out that if the government managed to solve the electricity crisis quickly, the risks could still be controlled.

3. "The social situation is deteriorating so rapidly"

In addition to energy problems, the report notes that 21 people have died so far due to lack of access to basic public services. This figure is expected to increase as food shortages continue and the internal payment system collapses in the country as a result of hyperinflation. As a result, demonstrations and looting in different parts of the country are in full swing.

4. "The weakness of the government is more and more obvious"

The government's inability to explain the cause of the general blackout, let alone provide a solution to the problem, is clear evidence of this government's weakness. Maduro must devote more and more resources to the control of public order instead of solving the urgent problems facing Venezuelans, which will become increasingly difficult as the situation worsens.

5. "The electrical infrastructure is affected by years of lack of investment that make it extremely fragile"

The corruption charges behind the government's "investments", the layoffs, the loss of qualified staff and the lack of maintenance make it extremely difficult for the government to not take responsibility for the situation. This guilt will surely affect the support base of dictator Maduro, who, according to a Datbadisis survey of February, had already fallen to historically low levels.

"97% of respondents described the situation as negative in the countryand the level of desperation even increases support for extreme solutions such as the coup d'etat or foreign military intervention, "the investigation revealed.

6. "Even if the electricity service is restored in the coming days, the supply of goods will continue to deteriorate and tensions will probably intensify"

The Maduro regime's resource shortage, which faces serious funding problems, threatens the government's social control mechanisms. "Due to the loss of oil revenues, we expect this month a 50% drop in imports, after falling about 75% since the start of the crisis, "reported Barclays.

7. "The opposition is still mobilized and the pressure increases for Maduro to leave"

The growing consolidation and international recognition of Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela could favor the establishment of a transitional government. "The February Datbadisis survey indicates that it achieved a popular approval rating of 61.2%, after being virtually unknown just one month ago.", points out the financial institution As its popularity grows, the likelihood of leadership materializes increases.

8. "While the opposition has suffered setbacks, the government's situation seems to be worse"

In recent weeks, the government has had to deal not only with the cost of using force to block the entrance of humanitarian aid, but also with the triumphant return of Guaidó to the country after a toured several Latin American countries in defiance of the regime. He had forbidden her to travel abroad. The government's growing dependence on fear and terror over the repression of Chavist groups may indicate that they are losing control of the country's official security forces.

9. "We continue to believe that the inaction of the army up to now reflects potential problems of coordination and its historical tendency to avoid conflict, rather than his loyalty to Maduro"

The lack of coordination within the security forces could serve as a catalyst for a democratic transition in the country. If the military decides to give up its support for the scheme, Maduro will no longer have the mechanisms necessary to continue to avoid the will of the people.

10. "The relationship with Cuba could be a key potential catalyst for a fracture"

"With the continued decline in oil production, the volume of transfers to Cuba has doubled and, if it is maintained, it will reach 40% of Venezuela's cash-generating exports in the coming weeks," warns Barclays. . This trend represents a double threat to the regime: if the relationship with Cuba weakened, the punishment apparatus of Chavez would be affected, which would increase the viability of a popular uprising. If the relationship is maintained, the plan will have fewer and fewer resources to devote to other purposes, including the armed forces, which could strengthen any existing division within the regime.

11. "If there is no break within the regime in the coming weeks and the situation persists, the likelihood of a foreign military intervention will probably increase"

Although the interim government of Guaidó and the international community still prefer a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the crisis, the possibility of military intervention should not be ruled out. "If, in order to contain the situation, a military intervention were to occur, the most likely thing would be, in our opinion, that Guaido and the National Assembly exercise the powers provided for in Article 187 of the Constitution, which which would prevent the case from being referred to the court. UN Security Council, where it could face the veto of China and Russia, until then aligned on the Maduro regime", predicted the investment bank.

"However, it is possible to avoid this extreme scenario and it is likely that the opposition will have to exhaust all available options and build up forces before making such a move," he concluded.