US intervention in Venezuela is less likely

The announcement by the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, that all staff will be dismissed from the country's embbady in Caracas this week, notes that the decision "reflects the deterioration of the situation in Venezuela "and that the presence of these diplomats" has become a limitation for US policy. "This last part has generated speculation that it is more likely that there is a military actionbut in this case it is the proof to the contrary.

It is true that the situation is tense. Diplomats loyal to Nicolás Maduro, the man that most countries of the Western Hemisphere no longer recognize as the Venezuelan leader, have accused the United States of America. arm deserters on the other side of the border, in Colombia. Maduro himself attributed the failure of his country's dilapidated power grid to an American cyber attack. President Donald Trump and his key advisers repeat the phrase "all options" are considered. Likewise, the High Representative for the European Union's Foreign and Security Policy, Federica MogheriniHe warned that any outside military action would be unacceptable.

However, the most plausible explanation for the dismissal of diplomats is caution. They could have become "a trigger for possible action," said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas. American diplomats could be targets of Maduro's supporters Farnsworth explained that he was armed, which would almost certainly motivate a US military response.

They released the Venezuelan journalist who was arrested by the intelligence services

The notion that the United States does not want to intervene it is not a mere speculation. This month, Russian propaganda media they published a recording of Elliott Abrams, special envoy of the country of North America for the crisis in Venezuela, which reveals the improbability of an intervention. Abrams has talked to Russian actors who pretend to be Swiss officers, but there is no reason to doubt his comments.

During the conversation, Abrams recognized a diplomatic strategy open to the public make the military nervous Venezuelan by not dismissing a military intervention. Such ambiguity can sometimes be helpful: On Tuesday, the Venezuelan Attorney General announced the opening of an investigation against the country's president, Juan Guaidó, for his role in the alleged case. sabotage of the electricity network The investigation is unclear, but it is in the interest of the United States. and the opposition that Maduro has to think twice about using the survey to harm Guaidó. This is true whether or not North America provides for military intervention.

The notion that the United States does not want to intervene it is not a mere speculation.

However, Abrams pointed out that such plans do not exist Unless Maduro does something "completely crazy", like attacking the US embbady. Asked again about a military action last week at the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, Abrams essentially said the same thing: "Certainly. it is not desirable and that's not the way the government is going. "

There is always the possibility that Trump changes your mindbut making the decision to intervene would be unworthy of him. We are talking about the President, remember, that the Pentagon is currently facing plans for withdrawal of US forces from Syria and Afghanistan. He likes to boast about ending wars, not triggering them.

* This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Editorial Board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.