Nicolás Dujovne: "We have no forecasts, but we are confident that inflation will be lower than last year"

It's hard to know how much they impact the atmosphere of Nicolás Dujovne the news of the Argentine economy. The Minister of Finance of Mauricio Macri it shows the same confidence when the variables are aligned in their favor only when the negative data increases. Now, he says, there is more than the first. "A gradual recovery has begun," he said during an interview with Infobae and other means in the North American capital.

"There is no doubt that inflation in 2019 will be lower than last year and we believe that this process will be more visible when regulated prices increase"We think that there could be positive surprises in terms of inflation once this process is completed, starting in May or June, with lower rates," he added.

Sitting in a room at the St. Regis Hotel, a few blocks from the White House and a short walk from multilateral organizations, the minister badured today that it was not planned by the government to renegotiate the agreement with the Fund, because the financing needs for 2020 "will be very low" and Kirchnerism was the subject of criticism and the "magic" thought of populism to which Venezuela belonged. The former government, he said, committed what he described as a "macroeconomic homicide."

He also left definitions on Roberto Lavagna, that he considered partially responsible "for the problems we face" and affirmed that "in all aspects of the economy, we are better than in 2015".

-What is the expected inflation for this year?

-We have no forecasts, but we are confident that it will be lower than last year, we only make forecasts when we send the finance bill to Congress in September.

– Did it make sense to update the rates when it is clear that this will push the index upward?

-There is no other way, we tried the path of magic, to freeze the tariffs, and it's a path that led us to a power outage indefinite like the one we see in Venezuela today.

– Even if it aggravates a problem that is of concern to many people and perhaps the government?

– Without a doubt, but our concern is to build a healthy economy, with a balanced budget and where the Argentineans must understand that the public services are paid by somebody. If consumers do not pay them when they pay the bill for their services, they will pay with taxes or with a monetary issue. It is much more efficient to pay through public service rates, where we can also focus help on those who need it most, because we have a social rate that did not exist before. The magic idea that someone does not pay is lived during Kirchnerism, where we destroy the entire energy matrix of Argentina. Someone pays for this and we can not ignore the problem, even if it is expensive. Argentina was destroying its production of electricity, gas, oil and we are now happily seeing production increasing, the dollar price of gas in Argentina can probably fall in the coming years thanks to the energy policy that we lead and that will generate a very important comparative advantage for Argentine companies.

– In a few years, will people be able to pay less for gas than they are paying now?

-I am confident that Argentina will be able to reduce its energy costs through the phenomenal increase in supply related to the policies we are conducting.

– Will people see it on your gas bill?

-Of course yes. It is a process that will take time.

– Has the economy spoken?

-We think so. We are monitoring a very broad set of indicators and we think the floor is the same as we observed between late November and early December.e, and from there, a very slow gradual recovery began, due to a slight improvement in real wages and an export sector that will experience double-digit growth this year for the first time since 2011. Argentina destroyed its exports during the stock period, while they had dropped 35% in four years, a macroeconomic homicide perpetrated under the previous administration. Thanks to the reforms implemented in 2015, exports began to grow gradually. This is the fourth year followed by export growth, but this year already at double-digit rates, not just those related to agriculture.

-When the work will recover?

-Well, the job fell last year, after a year 2017 when a lot of jobs were created in Argentina. The proceeds of the 2018 recession have fallen and, of course, still lag behind the economic recovery. First, demand is restored and, after one or two quarters, employment starts to recover. We think it will take a few more months, but we will see a resumption of employment throughout the year.

– In opposition, there are economists who speak of a legacy of macrista worse than the legacy left by Kirchnerism. Is it true?

-I think it's totally wrong, in all aspects of the economy, we are better than in 2015, there is no sector in which we are worse than in 2015.

– No inflation?

– Fortunately, we now have an index of inflation. Remember that during the Kirchner, there was no inflation just because it had not been reported, we had no statistics. Inflation is not comparable in a government that swept it under the carpet, with stocks, the freezing of tariffs and the consumption of all the reserves of the Central Bank, with a government that carries out a macro policy – healthy economic, transitory Many inflationary problems that we have today are the legacy of twelve years of freezing tariffs, consumption of reserves.

– And the increase in debt? This is one of the main criticisms addressed to the government …

-The debt is the mechanism used to finance the deficit. Similarly, when we talk about debt, we are paying the price of Kirchner's legacy in terms of the budget deficit they left us, which is 8 GDP points. We reduced this deficit, after interest, to 3 consolidated GDP points this year. That is, the debt we had to issue in those years is the product of the kirchner deficit. You have to see the whole film, and the film Kirchner took us to Venezuela and the one we are proposing leads us to the reforms that were started by other countries 20 years ago and that have flourished.

– What do you think of the plan proposed by Broda, Cavallo and others?

-I do not know, but the Argentineans have already seen this kind of magic proposals that fix the exchange rate. There is a whole generation of economists who, I think, have been involved in the failure of our society.

-What do you think of Lavagna's leadership now that he could be a candidate?

-I think some of the problems we come across come from this direction. Do not forget that Argentina had frozen rates throughout its management, the tax result deteriorated instead of improving, but absorbed the initial improvements Remes Lenicov and some of the problems we have encountered with our debt have been generated by a very unsuccessful restructuring, with a non-acceptance rate of 26% atypical.

-Lavagne is partly to blame for the Kirchnerist legacy?

– I think we are talking here about a populist economy, Kicillof and what we propose to create a solid and permanent foundation.

– In October will the economy play in favor of the government or against?

-I do not know, I am not a political badyst. I am convinced that we are doing the right thing, that the current government is facing structural solutions and that society will value it.. We know that these years have been difficult, we do not ignore it, but we think that the Argentineans are aware of the efforts made and do not want to put everything we have done to the competition.

– Next year will have to ask more money from the Fund?

-No, no way.

-Espert says yes …

-Well, Espert is in the countryside, so maybe that's part of his plan. But as we are going to have a primary surplus, the financial needs will be very low, we will be prefinanced and we do not intend to change the current program we have with the Fund.