Mauricio Macri obtained the support of the Monetary Fund in all that he asked for – 16/03/2019

Mauricio Macri got the Monetary Fund everything you asked for From an emergency package to mitigate the effects of the peso depreciation and the balance of payments crisis of May 2018, through most of the funds in its management and, in the long term, the Authorization from the body so that the Treasury sells 9,600 million US dollars until the end of the year through daily auctions in order to calm the market during the campaign.

Clarin consulted specialists familiar with the operation of the Fund and the dynamics of Argentina. Could you wait for another IMF gesture? Does the country have more margin? Why this support?

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Héctor Torres, former representative of Argentina at the Fund and today at the World Trade Organization, believes that the possibility of new support "will depend on the economic performance of the country". The IMF, he says, could "forgive" if one of the goals signed in the to be listening. "If the zero deficit is slightly exceeded, this could justify a waiver; however, there are limits. "Torres recalls that" we are in a very politically sensitive year and the Fund will try not to appear as a stakeholder in the process. Very clear support for Macri could be bad for both the government and for relations between the IMF and Argentina. Torres has served on the IMF's board of directors in three periods, two of them representing the country (2004-2008 and 2016-March 2017).

Claudio Loser, former director of the Western Hemisphere Department from 1996 to 2002, shares Torres' vision. "The agency would approve small deviations from the objectives agreed for this year, but if you ask for a disbursement advance, the Council would not have much leeway to accept something like this. countries could argue that the agency would support a government and not the country. "

The IMF plan provides for disbursements in 2018-2019 for 90% of the total amount. In 2020, about 3.9 billion US dollars.

The chief economist of a major bank has set a scenario that Argentina would face: the Treasury sells $ 9,600 million and lacks currency to pay the letters next year. Could the IMF advance 2020 disbursements? Hard, say Torres and Loser.

A report from the Quantum consulting firm headed by the former secretary of finance Daniel Marx It calculates that the $ 9.6 billion US IMF would be "insufficient" if there was a race or, as economists call it, a monetary stress. Although the supply of foreign exchange is increasing in the coming months, mainly due to the seasonality of exports, "the balance of the balance in 2019 will remain delicate, beyond what was announced recently". For the former public servant, there are still many questions after the announcement of Minister Dujovne's week. "What happens if they do not sell $ 60 million in the day?" Accumulate they? "

On May 8, 2018, Macri announced that he would appeal to the IMF. The following month, the Council approved a record $ 50 million. In August of the same year, in the middle of a difficult race, the president called for a major breakthrough of the body. Commission cleared order and new program. This week, staff approved the planned currency utilization mechanism.

The body showed support in Argentina at once technician as policy. The staff has no qualms about changing certain aspects of the plan, for example when the Treasury has declared that it will not be able to finance itself in the market to improve the balance sheet of the BCRA. Ten years ago, the IMF conducted a review and audit on the treatment of the Argentine case in the crisis of 2001 that damaged the reputation of the body. You do not want to repeat mistakes.

On the political issue, the former secretary of finance Guillermo Nielsen He says it like that. "Here, there is no relationship with the IMF, Trump has a personal relationship with Macri and the US He was very generous with Argentina." Fernanda Vallejos (FPV-PJ) states in a report that "the auction of dollars violates the IMF convention". Something like that could have happened to the legal office of the agency? Nielsen asks: "Will the Monetary Fund continue to support in this way? We do not know. Cristina is the president will be different. "