Zero sum in the fight between Maduro and Guaidó | Come …

Page12 in Venezuela

From Caracas

Venezuela seems to be at the point of the zero sum in the confrontation between the self-proclaimed Juan Guaidó and the government of Nicolás Maduro. No event had enough strength to change the balance of power in the minimal objective of Guaidó's strategy: put Maduro on the ropes to force him to negotiate unfavorably. The maximum, to reach the "cessation of the usurpation" with his early departure from the palace of Miraflores, seems even more distant, unlikely at the moment.

In this context, mobilizations, stories, diplomatic scenarios and undeclared operations take place. Regarding the mobilizations, Caracas was again the scene of an act of chavism Saturday, with a reaffirmation of the appeal capacity. The opposition on its side, Guaidó in the lead, organized an event in Valencia and, yesterday, an activity in Vargas. His departure from Caracas was due at the beginning of what Guaidó called the Libertad operation.

"One, organize and mount orders for freedom to stop the spoofing." Two, locate the public and military employees and talk to them kindly because we are about to change, and thirdly , go to Miraflores to demand and demand the freedom of Venezuela, "he said in Valencia. He used the repeated phrase "all the letters are on the table", in reference to the undated promise to request a US military intervention.

The tour of Guaidó by the country has not yet announced the day of completion. The images show a capacity to appeal to the declining trend that does not go beyond the usual frameworks of the opposition. Enough for photos, little for goals. Nothing is definitive, although it does not seem too risky to say that one of the problems facing Guaidó's discourse is the difficulty of bringing reality closer to the correlation of strength of the waiting levels created in his work. social base. Time pbades, the presidential chair does not seem closer, discursive immediacy wears out.

Elliot Abrams, representative of the United States Government for Venezuela, was particularly known for leading the mercenary war in Nicaragua in the 1980s. "We did not expect this situation to be solved instantly. sanctions, which are beginning to be felt, are not yet fully implemented, "he said. This way of staging stands out from the statements of men like Mike Pompeo, who talked about the last days and the last hours of Nicolás Maduro.

Pompeo, secretary of the US state, responsible for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) by decision of Donald Trump, said his government was "determined" to bring humanitarian aid to Venezuela. At the same time, it was learned that the collection point would be the island of Curaçao, colonial enclave of Holland in the Caribbean, located 295 km from Caracas and 139 km from Punto Fijo, where is located. one of the main refineries of PDVSA.

It is not yet known when or how could be the new possible attempt to reach humanitarian aid. This will depend on several factors, among other diplomats, of an ever-changing agenda, which will take place tomorrow, March 19, when they will meet with Elliot Abrams and the Deputy Foreign Minister. from Russia, Sergei Riabkov, in Rome.

"We will urgently present to the US side all our positions, including the inadmissibility of military intervention and, in general, illegal foreign interference and pressure against the legitimate government," he said. said Mr Riabkov. The Russian government also spoke a few days ago of the power outage in Venezuela, saying that it came from abroad.

The public position of the United States regarding the possible scenarios has not changed. Abrams again baderted that it was impossible for Maduro to preside over a transitional government or stand for election. He also mentioned the possibility that the Spanish government would allow the main leaders of the revolution to visit the country as a possible solution. There is still no answer, especially because of the diplomatic mistakes of the Pedro Sánchez government recognized by its foreign minister and because the internal dynamics seem marked by the elections of April 28.

This frame in constant movement makes it possible to anticipate new possible actions. In addition to a possible attempt to engage by force with the humanitarian aid argument, war actions also seem ready. One of them with the badumption of attacks directed by paramilitary / mercenary structures, and the other with the conformation of the international attack table. The latter was emphasized by Venezuelan diplomat Roy Chaderton, who claimed that "the Colombian oligarchy" is willing to undertake a war maneuver against Venezuela.

While waiting and anticipating the next steps, the daily life of the country has recovered its characteristics before the breakdown. The Venezuelan political dynamic is marked by moments of attempts to break up, such as January 23, February 23 or the blackout, followed by a relative calm, still tense. We are in this moment of calm, it is intuitive, by badysis and logic of dynamics, that a new moment of attempted rupture will return to change the equation to zero sum which shows that, until now, the strategy of the coup State failed to build. the scenario that I had planned.