Orlando Ferreres predicts "a very fast recovery"

Economist Orlando Ferreres claimed that the economy will grow at a rate of 6% a year in the next national elections with an annualized inflation of 31%, and badured that already in the middle of the year recovery of private wages and pensions will exceed the growth rate of inflation.

Ferreres gave this afternoon a lecture on "The Economic Situation and Prospects" at the Golosinas Expo 2019, the working meeting of the Association of Confectionery and Allied Product Distributors (ADGYA), which brings together the chain of industry and stands until tomorrow The Costa Salguero exhibition center.

"The recession has reached a low, there are already several sectors up in December and January taking into account the seasonality, but the activity is still in a stable state, with a slight recovery in consumer confidence and the image of the government, "Ferreres said.

Ferreres said the December exchange rate would be $ 51 per dollar, annualized inflation of 31% and GDP growth of 201% in 2019, with a strong recovery in the last two quarters of the year of around 6%, with a strong external front generating a surplus of dollars.

As for inflation, the economist explained that the inflation forecast will be maintained "in the first few months of the year around 52 and 53% annualized, but in June and July, it starts to fall to stand at 31%, a downward trend that will consolidate next year, "a scenario that he defended by reminding that the regulated increases will dilute towards the moment of the elections.

With this perspective, the economist badured that "At the time of the elections, the economy will grow by 6% a year, after a second quarter during which the recovery will be 1.3% and that of the third quarter of 3.1%. "

"That is to say," he added, "there will be a very rapid recovery that highlights a growth gap of 12.2% between the fall of 6% of the same period of 2018 and that of 6.1% expected last quarter ", an optimistic panorama that admitted" no share of economist "but defending itself on the performance of the field and other sectors in recovery.

Finally, Ferrères said that "by mid-year, real wages in the private sector and pensions will be higher than inflation, which will result in a sharp increase in consumption.

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