Four sectors that can boost the country's long-term growth

Resources Recurring economic crises, such as the current one, do not allow for the development of future visions; Beyond this, badysts believe that, under certain conditions, there are segments with high potential.

The economist and former central bank president Mario Blejer has reopened an old debate about Argentina's vision as a rich country. It's a "fable," he said in an interview with LA NACION. "Rich countries are those who can offer a high standard of living to their citizens, because if being rich means having natural resources, Switzerland would be poor, there are natural resources that you have to know how to exploit, but it's not the only thing. " Beyond the discussion of the real possibilities of the country, recurrent crises fuel moments that prevent the development of a future vision.

How is the production card for the next years? What activities could add work and value? Analysts consulted by LA NACION presented their views on the challenges and opportunities of four sectors in particular.

The power of knowledge

New technologies and software development are presented as an exceptional opportunity, badysts say. In 2017, the Argentine software has achieved record exports, for a total of $ 1,699 million, according to the Permanent Observatory of the Software Industry and Computer Services (Opssi). Knowledge-based services account for 8.3% of total goods and services sold abroad and account for 6.5% of salaried jobs.

"Less than 10% of companies are experiencing the benefits of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, the software industry is small, few vibrant and talented businesses are expected to grow and develop," says economist Ramiro Albrieu. , principal researcher of the sector. economic development of Cippec. "There is a mystery about how we connect the software industry to the economy, and the countries that achieve sustained growth are the ones that make those connections," he said. But there is a "bottleneck" to find skilled workers. "You have to change the skills training scheme," says Albrieu.

"The central problem that continues to grow is the lack of skilled labor: if you had 200,000 specialists, they would now have jobs, but you do not have them," adds L & # 39; economist Bernardo Kosacoff, professor at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA). Di Tella Despite this, he is convinced that in Argentina "we can do very sophisticated things with SMEs, which only happens in 10 of the 200 developing countries, but not everyone can have companies like Invap, which sells nuclear reactors for millions of dollars "in Holland and Australia".

The shortage of professionals translated into figures indicates that 16% of workers in Argentina have technological skills, against 33% in the United States and nearly 40% in Germany or Japan. "To accelerate the technological change, you must readjust the change of the workers", insists Albrieu. He adds: "Some entrepreneurs believe that artificial intelligence is a robot that will occupy jobs."

According to the findings of a study by Cippec, growth could accelerate from 1% to 1.5% per year over the next two decades, a significant figure due to the breaking power of the technology . However, Albrieu likens the opportunities to the clock of a taxi in motion: "The windows of opportunity are reduced, the costs are paid in terms of growth because they do not accelerate;
status That's not an option, there is an urgent call, you can not wait 5 or 10 years because the world will not wait, "he says.

"These years have been tragic for production: since 2008, we have not grown, few investments have been invested, almost nothing has been innovated, human resources have not been qualified and productivity has not improved. has not increased, I could be skeptical, but in terms of potential, Argentina has the ability to produce very sophisticated things, "Kosacoff badysis and justifies it by highlighting the development of" a hundred companies dedicated to production software and services, whose exports amounted to $ 9,000 million ".

"Software development can change the technological state and the productive matrix because it plays a dual role: to earn money, to generate high quality jobs and to provide work, that's what we need to put the accent, "says Albrieu.

Food in the world

Albrieu cites, as an example of a dynamic sector that includes this phenomenon, the agricultural sector: "There is a lot of innovation, if you go to the countryside, you see First World". Argentina produces food for over 400 million people and is the largest per capita producer in the region. "We can produce for 600 million people in the next 10 years," said Daniel Funes of Rioja, president of the coordinator of the food industries (Copal).

"In 2011, we exported $ 30 billion worth of industrialized food products for just $ 1.5 billion in imports.In terms of trade balance, the sector has a huge impact," he said. In terms of work, the sector has between 400,000 and 500,000 direct jobs. "But upstream and downstream vertical integration means we are reaching 1,500,000 people involved in the whole process, from sowing to logistics," says Funes de Rioja.

Regarding the challenges, he mentions "a cumulative tax pressure of 40% for food and 50% for drinks, which represents a phenomenal penalty, and the cost of logistics is three times greater than the cost of food. 39; internationally. "

Beyond the difficulties, they are optimistic in the sector. "A Copernican turnaround can take place in five years and when we make a mistake, we export nearly $ 26,000 million.The food industry represents a permanent opportunity," says Funes de Rioja.

A boom of resources

A rock at 3000 meters deep, developed during the Jurbadic period, extends below Neuquén, forming part of Mendoza, Rio Negro and La Pampa. Vaca Muerta is the second gas reserve and the fourth largest unconventional oil in the world. Of the 30,000 km 2 covered, only 2% were exploited.

31 companies work with a production of 25 million cubic meters per day. Between October 2017 and 2018, shale production increased by 243% and represents 15% of unconventional oil production. Production figures explain the recent reversal of energy. "Argentina recorded a deficit of US $ 9,000 million in 2015, with a cumulative total loss of US $ 15,000 million.This year, the balance was reached with a very significant energy change", he said. said Mr. Kosacoff.

For the former Energy Secretary Alieto Guadagni, Vaca Muerta "can increase its production in the coming years up to 50%, but this will depend on the investment decisions made in the 5500 kilometers of the Andean Cordillera and with a third of the total production, "Chile exports 10 times more mining products than Argentina, with resources of over 35 billion USD, while we generate between 2000 and 3,000 million USD, "said Guadagni, from Jujuy to Tierra del Fuego." Argentina's exports do not exceed 70 billion dollars. If you add $ 30 billion to the mining industry, you will get an impressive boom, "he said.

The economist believes that a "change of attitude" is needed and emphasizes that "there is bad environmental reasoning". He cites production in countries such as Canada, the United States, Australia, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador. And he laments: "We are the only ones with problems, when it is possible to develop a sustainable mining".

With regard to renewable energies, stresses that "for the first time, clean energy production exceeds the amount of dirty energy, with wind and solar energy currently accounting for less than 8% of total production and, although 'they have great potential, remain very weak, nascent.' And this puts the emphasis on hydropower plants.

"Argentina is not interested in the best hydropower project in the world in Alto Paraná, Pindoi, which could become the largest in the world." And he says: "A kilowatt installed can cost less than 3,000 US dollars, while the government has spent nuclear energy contracts for more than 7,000 US dollars, under an agreement with China. "

"You have to focus on the topics in depth and not get carried away by slogans," he said. Regarding the production of lithium, called white gold, Argentina concentrates 16% of world production in Catamarca, Salta and Jujuy, behind Australia (40%) and Chile (33%). Over the next few years, the global market could reach 7,700 million US dollars. Ore is essential for the manufacture of batteries. It is extracted from the salt mines of the north of the country, which form the "lithium triangle", as well as from Bolivia and Chile. Peak demand is expected in seven years. "It has a lot of potential, but we still do not know how the global market will evolve, it can generate revenue but not a lot of jobs," said Albrieu.

Argentina for export

In recent years, tourism has become the fourth largest exporter, behind oilseeds, grains and the automotive industry, with revenues of US $ 5.4 million in 2017 and US $ 5,900 in 2018.

"Argentina will continue to grow before the 9 billion million tourists by the end of 2020, a figure never before achieved," said Gustavo Santos, secretary of tourism. The figure is ambitious, but not far: there were 6,600,000 visits in 2017 and 7,000,000 last year. Tourism currently accounts for 1,100,000 jobs, or 5.5% of national employment and, according to Santos, "will continue to grow by about 300,000 new jobs in the coming years".

According to estimates by the Secretariat, the sector will employ about 1,500,000 people by the end of 2020. "Tourism has an extraordinary virtue.In Argentina, it develops the most federal activity in production, "says Santos. It indicates that the migration between domestic and inbound tourism reached US $ 15.2 billion in 2017.

"Argentina has proposed to become a reservoir of nature and for this, 6 national parks were created last year, the largest figure since 1947. Our goal is to double the surface of natural parks because this positioning will make us very strong in the future with a global tourism that will demand nature, "said the manager.

According to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), one in six jobs worldwide will be linked to tourism in the future. It is estimated that there will be 1800 million trips worldwide in the next decade. "South America in general and Argentina in particular can capture this growth of tourism," says Santos.