The government has lost the military vote: is it still time to get it back?

The military vote has an audit: how do the 50 or so people who vote in the Antarctic bases vote. Of these, 9 out of 10 are active military, three forces and all hierarchies up to the level of leaders.

In 2015 and 2017, we can verify that 85% voted for the change. Voters in the military sector are about one million, including active and retired staff and part of the core of their families.

But this vote has abandoned the party in power. The reasons? Lack of respect for promises, disappointment with the non-existence of a military policy, "economist" vision of the defense sectors of the government, sale of real estate, unprecedented adjustment that has, among other things, suspended rationing.

On Sunday, March 17, in a newspaper article, Jaime Duran Barba warned that the armed forces did not have the priority it was necessary to give them to ensure the monopoly of the Force in the hands of the state. This is the clearest sign that the government has decided to recover this segment of lost voters.

Members of the ruling party who make the decision to retrieve the military vote must badume that only a long-term defense scenario can recover it. They do not reach the gestures anymore.

As a reference for a long-term defense scenario, it is important to badyze what Spain has defined.

At the end of last year, a summit was held in Brussels to advance "European defense". It was decided to implement 17 of the 34 specifically European projects in the field of military development. Spain is participating in six of them: the first European drone for military use, to be ready by 2025; the new Tiger combat helicopter; the organization of logistical support points for internal and external operations; the articulation of a network of centers of excellence to evaluate capacities; a medical protection plan and the project for protection against chemical and nuclear risks.

But Spain has also asked Germany and France to join, as a third partner, the "eruocaza" project of the 21st century, which is perhaps the most militarily relevant initiative. and technological.

It is called NGWS and is designed as a fighter plane with pilot, operating with a "cloud" of drones, which will be advanced weapons platforms and sensors. The aircraft will be integrated with the "Future Air Combat" weapon system.

It should be noted that the Spanish Air Force (known as the "Air Force") is to replace, by 2025, 20 American F-18 fighters deployed at the base of Gando (Canary Islands) and, from here 2030, the remaining 65.

Although the official decision is made this year, it seems to have been ruled out to buy F-35 American homes. They would be replaced by modernized Eurofighter fighters, of European manufacture. This decision is considered practical and effective, in order to make the "bridge" between the planes that have to leave the service in the next ten years, until the incorporation of the new "European hunt" of the 21st century, which will take decades.

But, at the same time, the government of the Socialist Pedro Sanchez has included in the budget to be approved this year three projects of modernization of the equipment of the Spanish armed forces: the construction of 5 frigates F-110, with a budget $ 5,000 million; the manufacture of the first 348 wheeled combat vehicles for the military (8 × 8 VCR) with an investment of $ 1,800 million and the update of the hunters Eurofigther, a project requiring $ 1,200 million, which would serve to replace the American F-18s.

These are three projects that, together, require an investment of 8,000 million dollars and have been defined by the administration of the People's Party of Mariano Rajoy, delayed in its implementation due to budget constraints. The socialist government has decided to advance them, as part of a true state policy that transcends the political sign of successive administrations.

They join projects already approved for $ 6.5 billion. It is the one that is intended to modernize the S-80 submarines ($ 2,200 million); that for the supply of communication satellites (1800); million); modernization of Chinook helicopters (1,000 million); and the purchase of 23 NH-90 helicopters (1,600 million euros). If this year the parliamentary approval is reached, the modernization of the Spanish army will involve an investment of about 14 600 million dollars.

For a country like Argentina, which seeks to improve its insertion in the world, suppose that defense policy is an effective instrument for this is necessary and convenient.. The recent Bolsonaro-Macri summit showed a certain gap on the part of Argentina in the medium and long-term joint defense projects between the two countries.

Argentina is a medium-sized country, which can not rely on major powers such as the United States and China for its defense policy.

The problems can not be solved overnight. But the definition of a long-term scenario generating a credible horizon will be the only effective alternative for the ruling party to recover the military vote.

The author is a political badyst. Director of the Trade Union Studies Center for the New Majority