Brexit: lost in her labyrinth, Theresa May exhausts room for maneuver

PARIS.- Locked in his weekend residence Checkers, the British Prime Minister,

Theresa May

, badyzed with his collaborators the few options left for him to remain in power or have his approval approved by the House of Commons. Outside, half of the country, the Parliament, her own party and even her government were studying ways to make her resign.

For the few remaining faithful, the battle to avoid it is cyclopean. The argument is simple, especially before the conservative majority: "Forcing her to leave will automatically leave the country in general elections and will cause the party to break up". Downing Street also warns the
Tory ultra-Brexit that Parliament is so against an exit without agreement (
not agree) that the government would fall even before announcing it.

In the government team where "reigns an atmosphere of cataclysm", May faces the same dilemma. The pro-European ministers will not tolerate any support for a
not agree. However, some Brexit supporters claim that the only way to stay in office is to support a
not agree. In other words, the Prime Minister has exhausted his room for maneuver.

"I am afraid that the Prime Minister has arrived here, she has done what she could, but in all areas of the country, anger is palpable," said Vice-Chancellor George Freeman, a former advisor. Theresa May's policy.

Even though they acknowledge the Prime Minister's loss of support, other prominent members of the cabinet warn that May's resignation would lead to a general election and a "toxic" fight for leadership within the party.

"It is much better than one person to be responsible for this disorder," confesses one of these ministers. "If May leaves this week, there will be no way to avoid a general election and a number of subsidiary issues," he says.

In any case, the departure of May will depend only on her. After pbading a motion of no confidence on January 16, the Prime Minister can no longer be questioned within one year, according to the rules of the Conservative Party. However, it is clear that if May puts its exit agreement to the vote this week and MPs reject it for the third time, it will have little reason to stay in power.

For this reason, the government has announced that it could suspend parliamentary consultation, scheduled for Wednesday. According to estimates, the May agreement would be rejected by a margin greater than 149 votes against a second time.

But the eleven ministers and conservative MPs who are preparing May against are an alternative: they could vote in favor of the agreement if they were certain that the prime minister would not be in charge of future negotiations with the government. EU. The big question – unanswered – is: who could replace it?

Whatever may be, this week Britain will have to decide its future. After the EU agreed to an extension of Brexit last Thursday, all options were open until April 12:

1) – Approve the May agreement. If, by a miracle, the rejected text is already approved twice by the Parliament, Britain will leave the EU in an orderly way on May 22, with a two-year transition period.

2) – A Brexit without agreement. If MEPs reject the deal, London will have until April 12 to present an alternative solution. Otherwise, the country will leave the block with a
not agree, leaving overnight the single market and the customs union without a transitional period.

3) – Another postponement of Brexit. If on April 12, London proposed an alternative to avoid an exit without agreement, the Brexit could be postponed until the end of 2019.

These three options could include a change of Prime Minister, general elections, a second referendum and even a modification of the "red lines" adopted by the government during the negotiation of the agreement.

4) – Cancellation of Brexit. Although it may seem unlikely, nothing can be ruled out in the current chaos. Although May is fiercely opposed, an online petition calling for Britain to remain in the EU has garnered more than five million votes since Wednesday.

Given the current blockade, it is likely that on Wednesday, instead of deciding on the agreement, parliamentarians will conduct a series of votes in order to find out which of the two options is the majority. They will vote on those already mentioned and explore other forms of relations with the EU, such as the Canadian or Norwegian models.

The latter option, very popular among pro-Brexit, would turn Great Britain into a state badociated with the EU. But in this case, the country will remain in the single market and will have to comply with all the regulations of the block. Among other things, it will not be able to establish its own trade agreements and will have the obligation to respect those of the free movement of people.

Exactly the opposite of what the Eurosceptics were looking for when they promoted Brexit.