Crisis and strong dollar, key to the February trade surplus

The trade deal for February brought good news to the government, in a context where it needs strong and consistent dollars.

According to INDEC data, the second month of the year left a surplus of $ 460 million, eliminating the $ 892 million deficit recorded during the same period in 2018.

In addition, according to the consultant Abeceb, it was the sixth consecutive surplus after 20 months in red.

In terms of exports – and unlike January, where there was a year-to-year decline of 4.7% – February recorded growth of 3.7%, with global shipments of $ 4,464 million.

In terms of performance, primary products recorded a significant drop in volumes (almost 8% below), but the best prices led to a 1.2% improvement in value.

On the other hand, agricultural products (mainly cereals and processed meat) had a positive reaction, with growth of 17% in volume, although this was subsequently offset by a fall in international prices.

As, industrial products also moved into positive territory, with an increase in volumes of 9%, mainly due to the invasion in Brazil (shipments to this country increased by almost 20%).

In the disaggregated badysis, it was found that the main items that contributed to the rise in foreign sales and made the most gains in dollars were commercial vehicles, soybean oil, beef and beef. corn.

Disturbing data

However, the collapse in imports, which decreased by 22.9%, rose from nearly 5.2 billion US dollars to 4 billion US dollars.

The fact that overseas purchases show a drop of this magnitude – the collapse in January had been greater than 26% – is not good news, as this is linked to the poor performance of the sector and the contraction of demand in the retail trade, in a context of crisis and strong dollar.

In this sense, the INDEC data reveal that the pbadenger car category is still the most punished, with a collapse of 49% of the quantities.

This corresponds to the hard present of this sector which, during the first two months of the year, registered a collapse of the patents of the order of 47.5% over one year, result of prices of 0 km which rose from more than 70% in one year. year and increased funding plans, in a high interest rate scenario.

Consumer goods also contributed to the decline in imports, with a contraction of 27%, also in quantities.

This also corresponds to the poor indexes recorded by sectors such as clothing, electronics, supermarkets and shopping centers in general, which recorded at the beginning of the year a decline 10.5% and 15% respectively.

No less disturbing was the performance of the industry, which required nearly 26% less equipment goods (in volume), 18% fewer parts and machinery accessories and 10% fewer badets and intermediate supplies, key to the complete realization of the productive process.

It should be noted that virtually all private reports report a decline in the sector at the beginning of the year: according to FIEL, production decreased by 7.3% in February compared with the previous year. last year. At the same time, the index of industrial production established by Orlando Ferreres and his badociates has registered a sharp decline year on year, exceeding 9% for the same month.

Surplus "sweet and sour"

In this context, the Ecolatina consultants proposed (before the new advance of the dollar) a trade surplus for the whole of 2019 in the order of 6,000 million USD. If this materializes, it would imply a substantial reversal of the deficit of US $ 3,800 recorded last year.

In return, the consulting firm Abeceb raised a higher figure, following a domestic demand will continue to be low, delayed effects of a weaker peso and increasing agricultural and oil production.

Regarding imports, they said that as the economy recovers, it will stop falling as it has been in recent months, closing in 2019 with a contraction expected 6.3%. At the same time, exports will grow by almost 13%.

With all these variables, the trade balance could reach $ 8,160 million, according to Abeceb, about $ 340 million less than the projection presented in the previous report.

However, for all the reasons listed, it will be a "bitter-sweet surplus", as it will be a reflection of the problems that consume and the drag of the industry.

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