May loses control of Brexit and Parliament analyzes plan B

PARIS – In the last episode of the Shakespearian drama that Britain has been going through for two and a half years, trying to leave the

European Union

(EU), the Prime Minister

Theresa May

has suffered a new humiliation: British MPs have seized the parliamentary agenda, until now controlled by the government, and will decide today on a series of alternative scenarios.

It was a new failure for May. In a totally unprecedented move, Parliament badumed the power yesterday

Brexit

when the members approved by 329 votes to 302 an amendment which gives this possibility to the House of Commons and could provide a solution to the current paralysis.

The institutional blockade was so absolute that even three of May's state secretaries had disobeyed her order to vote against and had resigned to support the amendment: Richard Harrington, head of industry; Alistair Burt, Foreign Affairs, and Steve Brine, Public Health Officer.

Today, in what parliamentary parlance calls an "indicative vote", MEPs will propose and decide alternative Brexit scenarios to the agreement reached by the prime minister with the EU and rejected. twice by the House of Commons. If an option obtains the majority, it could be imposed as a solution.

Prior to this new protest, the Conservative prime minister warned that such a decision would be "an unwelcome and dangerous precedent" that would "reverse the balance of democratic institutions". May also declined to badume the commitment to implement the result of this vote, arguing that it "could contain unacceptable provisions for the Conservative Party or for the European Union".

In any case, with this decision, the deputies considerably increased the chances of obtaining a much more moderate Brexit than that proposed by the Prime Minister, or even of forcing him to leave the premises and to call legislative elections.

While the agreement negotiated in May with the EU provides for the exit of the country from the single market and the customs union, MEPs will vote today for more radical forms – such as 39, a simple free trade agreement or an exit without agreement – as well as others aimed at preserving links with the bloc.

For example, the organization of a second referendum, the simple cancellation of Brexit or the maintenance of the EU Customs Union with an badociation similar to that of Norway, called "Brexit" 2.0 "or" Norway plus ".

Everything seems to indicate that the latter option could win the majority of votes, because it is preferred by Conservative and Labor MPs.

A scenario which, if adopted, will prevent the United Kingdom from establishing its own trade agreements and will compel it to remain in the single market, while respecting the free movement of persons. Exactly the opposite of what the Eurosceptics were looking for when they promoted Brexit.

But "indicative votes" may also not lead to a majority or approve a solution rejected by the government. Convinced that this will be the case, the Prime Minister will not give up her agreement for the third time, in case she gets hypothetical and improbable support.

May met yesterday at her office to badyze the steps to follow. "They had a long discussion both about last night's votes and about the ongoing work to get support for the government agreement that allows us to leave the EU in an orderly manner as soon as possible ", said his spokesman. "If we can celebrate and win a vote this week, we will be able to leave the EU in less than two months with an agreement, which the Prime Minister firmly believes the people want," he said.

His big problem is that the time is short. The EU has set April 12 as the deadline for Britain to announce its intentions. If MEPs persist in their rejection, Theresa May will have no alternative but to ask the bloc for a new, probably long-term, postponement to completely renegotiate Brexit on other bases.

In this case, Britain should organize the European elections, a project difficult to explain to the public. Last headache for May: an unprecedented Brexit extension – rejected by the Prime Minister until now – would undoubtedly provoke a parliamentary vote of no confidence and a general election, plunging the country even further into the future. 39; unknown.

Key ally moves away from Prime Minister

DUP, a small party from Northern Ireland, Theresa May's ally, announced yesterday that it would not vote in favor of the Brexit deal negotiated with Brussels, which seriously jeopardizes Premier's capacity. to approve the text.

"We will not allow the prime minister or the horde of parliamentarians who support the EU to force us to support a toxic Brexit deal," said Sammy Wilson, a member of the Democratic Union Party on Brexit.

In Wilson's opinion, it is better to be "pushed" towards a "one year deadline" at Brexit for "at least to be heard" than to sign "an unchanged version" of the Agreement reached in May with the EU. The announcement further weakens the Prime Minister when he is waiting for the vote of the deputies on a text already rejected in January and February.