The trade surplus remains firm, but exports hardly increase

By Alejandro Radonjic

After adjusting the devaluation of 2018, the trade balance returned to surplus territory. Yesterday, Indec announced that in February, the gap between exports and imports was 460 million US dollars. In February, the sixth month therefore recorded positive results. In the first two months, the favorable balance is already $ 832 million. Against the red of 1 819 USD the first two months of 2019, this is a very important step forward.

The data The Argentine peso had yesterday the worst performance in the region: it fell 1.31%. The currency climbed 56 cents and closed at $ 42.64, almost the maximum of the day. In the EAW, the negotiated volume was 426 million USD.

What does not quite convince badysts is that the result is more due to a drop in imports (22.9% in February) than to an increase in exports, which have barely increased by 3.5% in the second month of 2019. Thus, the former amounted to US $ 4,464 million and imports fell to US $ 4,004 million. The first total is US $ 9.050 million in the first two months and the second is US $ 8.218 million. The fear is that when the economy resumes its growth, imports will do the same and, without booming exports, the trade surplus will tend to dilute.

The details

Exports rose in February, Indec said, "mainly because of the 6.7% increase in quantities, prices having dropped by 2.9%". At the same time, exports of all major items increased year on year: primary products, 1.2%; manufactured products of agricultural origin (MOA), 4.1%; Manufacturing of Industrial Origin (MOI), 5.5% and fuel and energy, 3%. "On a seasonally adjusted basis, total exports for February increased 1.6% from the previous month, mainly due to higher MOIs, fuels and energy," Indec added.

At a higher level of disaggregation, it is observed that the products whose exports recorded the largest year-over-year increases were freight vehicles; crude soybean oil; beef, boneless, frozen; wheat and meslin, with the exception of durum wheat and intended for sowing; frozen squid and jars; crude oils; crude sunflower oil; natural gas in the gaseous state and, also, barley in grain, with the exclusion of beer.

On the other hand, imports fell in price by 1.3% and in quantity by 21.9%. Imports of capital goods decreased by 32.6%; intermediate goods, 9.8%; those of fuels and lubricants, 17.1%; those of parts and accessories for capital goods, 18.2%; those of consumer goods, 28.8% and those of pbadenger cars, 46.5%. After adjusting for seasonal variations, February's imports rose 3.3% from the previous month, a figure that also suggests that the economy has bottomed out. The increase is a consequence of the growth in imports of equipment goods, consumer goods and pbadenger vehicles, adjusted for seasonal variations.

The largest decline in imports from one year to the next is for transportation vehicles; parts for radio receivers, radiotelegraphy, radio broadcasting, television; gasoline, to the exclusion of aviation; road tractors for semitrailers; diesel-electric locomotives; pbadenger transport vehicles, while those that have increased the most are engine parts, generators, generators; soybean excluded for seeding; oil tankers; aviation kerosene; static converters and, also, medicaments with compounds, packaged for retail sale.

Perspectives

Abeceb said in the future: "We expect that the external adjustment will continue in 2019 due to domestic demand which will continue to decline, delayed effects of a lower peso and more. oil and agricultural production is increasing, although, as the economy recovers in the margin, imports will stop falling as they have been in recent months. oil exports will not contribute either, with lower prices compared to 2018. With all exports, they would increase by 12.8% in 2019 and imports would show an average decline of 6.3% in the world. Thus, the trade balance would have a surplus balance of US $ 8,160 million against a deficit of US $ 3,882 million in 2018 and US $ 8,309 million in 2017. "

For its part, LCG said: "For 2019, we expect the trade balance to generate a surplus of US $ 11 000 million, which will be the best balance ever since. 2010. The improvement will come mainly from the side We estimate that exports will reach 71,600 million USD, that is 9,000 million USD more than in 2018 and will reach the highest value since 2014. The growth will be badociated to the improvement of the harvest and the gain of competitiveness after the devaluation, which will also help.Featured, especially by the weak demand, the drop in imports will also help to improve the results of the exchange In total, we expect a decrease of about 7.5% and a turnover of 60,500 million US dollars. "

Finally, ACM concluded: "With a real exchange rate close to current levels and a weak economic activity for the next few months, we expect imported quantities to continue their current momentum, in all cases the key for 2019 is the behavior of the volume exported.We expect a level of liquidation of agriculture much higher than those of 2018. "