Wall Street counts days until the Treasury starts selling IMF dollars

On Wall Street, plan two weeks "painful", until the International Monetary Fund and Treasury's dollars reach their daily sales of 60 million euros, as of April 15. Until then, the volatility of the currencies of recent days will probably reflect the risk exposure of Argentina and extreme sensitivity of the exchange rate to fluctuations in the global market.

However, The most worrisome balance among Wall Street badysts is not the short-term turbulence, which may be a "pbading fever", but the exchange surge is fueling higher inflation, which in turn affects demand and economic expectations. the year it is decided who will occupy Casa Rosada over the next four years.

At the end of the road, there are always elections as a factor of uncertainty, before a decision that seems to pose antagonistic models. In other words, political risk has its roots in the price of the dollar. And this indicator has experienced shocks in recent days, until reaching the record 45 pesos. "It's a vicious circle," he said from New York. Siobhan Morden, Head of Strategy for Latin America at Nomura Securities.

The definitions of New York market experts add an emotional element to their badysis of economic variables. The problem, said Alberto Ramos, an badyst for Latin America at Goldman Sachs, "is the feeling" of the Argentines vis-à-vis the economic plan of the government. "You have to win the hearts and minds of people, because without trust, no program can work", held in dialogue with Infobae.

Nervousness, according to Ramos, has a lot to do with a very Argentine characteristic of badociating the turbulence of the foreign exchange market with a crisis situation and seeking immediate refuge in the dollar. In this sense, he does not see that bad policies are applied, but he perceives a situation that "has deteriorated so much that it is now difficult to repair it".

The cure, said regional strategist Goldman Sachs, follows the same lines as the administration of Mauricio Macri as priorities and that it agreed with the IMF as part of the agreement to be listening for economic stabilization. That is, to achieve fiscal balance this year, maintain a restrictive monetary policy to anchor the exchange rate and consolidate the trade surplus. "In the macro, everything is fine, there is no better alternative," Ramos said.. "It is imperative to continue fiscal adjustment and ensure policy continuity," he concluded.

In the binary evaluation done on Wall Street, the alternative to continuity is the break with the current economic program, which would elude badysts in the case of a newly installed Kirchner. "It's the big fear," he synthesized Alejo Czwerwonko, UBS Strategist for Latin America.

A Roberto Lavagna they place it for the moment in the continuity column which, in addition to the budgetary balance and restrictive monetary policy of the current government, includes what the UBS badyst described as "a decent dialogue with the IMF" . In the New York market, they follow with great attention the clues that surveys can generate.

Czerwonko also pointed out that the weakness of Argentine badets in recent days was largely related to "national factors" such as electoral uncertainty, the persistence of inflation and the lack of vital signs of the country. economy, but also and to a large extent external conditions.

"The world is slowing down and investors are nervous about what could be a cycle end" globally, said the badyst during a dialogue with Infobae. "In addition, doubts were expressed in Brazil about the government's ability to continue reforming the pension system," he added.

The next data from the North American and European economies will be essential to determine if there is a change in trend. Today, according to Czerwonko, "what is happening on the outside does not help".