Elections that may mark the future of the "XXI model of the cold war"

Ukraine is vital for Russia. With over 42 million inhabitants, it is the second most populous country in Eastern Europe.and it is the neighbor with whom he shares most of his eastern border. In addition, it was part of the Soviet Union for 70 years and so Moscow never stopped to consider it almost a province.

It is logical that the Kremlin has worried about the growth of Europhilia in Ukraine from the first years of this century. The turning point was taken in 2012, when an badociation agreement with the European Union (EU) began to progress. President Viktor Yanukovych, an ally of Vladimir Putin, had first pushed the process, but had escaped Russian pressure. This decision triggered a mbad protest movement between late 2013 and early 2014.

The fall of Yanukovych in February involved the overthrow of Ukraine towards the West. The possibility that European tentacles reach so close to their territory despaired of Putin, who decided to intervene by force. First, it annexed the Crimean Peninsula, which had been part of Ukraine since 1953, and then supported an armed insurgency in the east of the country, in the Donbbad region. The civil war has already killed 13,000 people.

The EU and the United States reacted by applying sanctions to Russia, which was not willing to give. It is thus that began a new era of global geopolitics reminiscent of the Cold War for the return of the confrontation between Moscow and its old Western adversaries, even though the contemporary world is very different and can no longer be divided in two.

Ukraine celebrates the second presidential election Sunday since the outbreak of the conflict. The first took place in May 2014, in full crisis, and Petro Poroshenko won with more than 54% of the votes. Five years later, he is re-elected, posing as the leader who has managed to stand firm against Russia and who has managed to contain the separatist threat to the east – although it is far from the 39 to have eradicated.

Will face again Yulia Tymoshenko, who cultivates an aesthetic that seems inspired by Eva Perónand that, in 2014, came second with 12%. After being one of the leaders of the 2004 Orange Revolution, a series of protests against the fraudulent elections won by Yanukovych, she was Prime Minister between 2007 and 2010 and was a political prisoner after the return of Yanukovych in power in 2010.

But the surprise of the campaign is Volodymyr Zelensky, actor and actor of 41 years, who in a popular series embodies a professor who arrives at the presidency after reporting widespread corruption in a viral video. Fiction is about to become a reality because it is the favorite of polls.

It is true that the three candidates are pro-Western, but they have nuances that can affect the future of bilateral relations.and on the international scene. On the other hand, allegations of fraud and threats of not recognizing the outcome in case of Poroshenko's victory cast doubt on the stability of the country in the years to come. A crisis in Ukraine could have a contagious effect of an unpredictable magnitude.

The Zelensky campaign seeks to break with all the molds of traditional politics. Instead of making speeches and making proposals on television, he presents the episodes of the series in which he plays, made sketch get on the stage and sing. At the same time, like all The foreigners what success do they have in different parts of the world, gives the privilege to social networks to communicate with their followers.

"Why does Poroshenko want a second term? Do not have a first in prison"He said in one of his last acts, that the whole political clbad was corrupted for him and that it had to be eradicated from the Ukrainian institutions." This speech has a lot of resonance among young disenchanted elites.

"Zelensky is currently leading with the support of 24.7% of potential voters, openly supporting a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Russia and the reinstatement of uncontrolled lands in Donbbad. Suggests organizing a conference with the participation of the signatories of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which are Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, with the addition of France, China and the EU, to mediate the end of the war, the restitution of occupied lands and the payment of reparations by Russia. He supports the move to NATO, but believes that membership must be decided on the basis of a referendum, "he said. Infobae Mykhailo Minakov, a researcher at the Kennan Institute, is devoted to the study of Russia and the post-Soviet space.

obviously opponents criticize his null management experience and the void of many of his proposals. In addition, they wonder if they can do what they propose because they do not know who they are going to join in Parliament.

"Zelensky is not a politician, but a TV comedian and has no program. He rarely gave interviews to discuss his views. His show is on the channel 1 + 1owned by the oligarch Igor Kolomoysky, who has very bad relations with Poroshenko because he has removed his main sources of corruption. Zelensky is Kolomoysky's revenge against Poroshenko. It's popular because he did not say anything and those who support him want to demonstrate against everyone, "said Taras Kuzio, professor at the Political Science Department of the National University of Kiev, at the Academy. Mohyla, consulted by Infobae.

The axis of Poroshenko's campaign is that no one will be as uncompromising with Russia as he is. "My ally is the Ukrainian people (…) my opponent is Putin"said this week in an act. It is to his credit that everyone, inside and out, knows what to expect from him. But his image is very worn by the succession of corruption scandals that have erupted in his government. This is one of the reasons he is third, with a voting intent of 16.8%.

"He has some success," continued Kuzio. Voters criticize him because they do not believe he has done enough to fight corruption.. However, this has created new anti-corruption institutions and closed spaces used by elites to steal. In addition, he formed an army, rebuilt the military industrial sector, repulsed the Russian aggression, ensured the maintenance of Western sanctions against Moscow and the decentralization of the country was successful. "

Tymoshenko presents herself as the candidate for peace. He closed the campaign surrounded by women and pensioners and promised a "strong, peaceful and independent Ukraine".

"Supported by 18.3% of likely voters, identifies the realization of peace and security as the first task of your program Said Minakov. He proposes diplomacy in the format of the Budapest memorandum as a tool to bring Donbbad and Crimea back to Russia. To support diplomatic efforts, he promises to develop the Ukrainian army in accordance with NATO rules. He also promises to increase the current package of financial incentives and equipment offered to soldiers, as well as increase social security benefits for veterans. "

At 58, she is the leader with the longest distance, which can work against her if the dichotomy is between change and continuity.. What is new, it is Zelensky and stability is represented by Poroshenko. Like this one, he has received many complaints of corruption.

"This is Tymoshenko's third attempt and she will lose again, she is a very contradictory populist socialist in her politics. He is in favor of reforms, but he does not vote for them in parliament. He is very hostile to the IMF and says he is pro-European. His main disadvantage is that voters do not trust him because he is lying, exaggerating and constantly manipulating the facts, as all populists do, "said Kuzio.

Beyond who gets more votes this Sunday, all roads lead to the vote, because nobody should exceed 50%. The second round would be April 21st. As Zelensky seems to have almost guaranteed access, the big question is whether he will compete with the current president or the former prime minister.

The future of relations with Russia

"There are two significant differences between the top three candidates. The first is that Poroshenko and Tymoshenko are insightful politicians, who participated in Ukrainian political life throughout its post-Soviet history. On the other hand, Zelensky is a newcomer and a complete stranger. The second is that Poroshenko and Tymoshenko have a hard stance about the war in eastern Ukraine, saying that they will not support the granting of special autonomy to the region within a reunified Ukraine, nor negotiations with Moscow to make it possible. Zelensky says the only way to solve the dead end is to negotiate with Russia"said Maria Popova, professor of political science at McGill University in Montreal, in dialogue with Infobae.

The tension felt last December in the sea of ​​Azov was a sign that the confrontation with Russia could intensify from one moment to the next. A small fleet of the Ukrainian Navy crossed the Kerch Strait, which surrounds the Crimea coast, when it was intercepted by the Russian coastguard, who fired and struck one of the boats.

Several crew members were injured and arrested. Moscow insisted that they enter illegally into its territorial waters and called the event a provocation. Kiev said it was a routine route, in an area to be monitored by both countries in accordance with a bilateral agreement. But the crisis has transcended borders, as Donald Trump suspended a scheduled bilateral meeting with Putin in the following days.

The pro-Russian political field represented by Yanukovych was totally marginalized. Yuriy Boyko, your candidate, should finish fourth or fifth. So the elections would not cause a radical change of direction, because the three main contenders are in favor of the EU. But the impact of small differences on what to do with the Kremlin should not be underestimated.

"In the event that Zelensky or Tymoshenko wins, the possibility of an agreement with Russia is greater," said Minakov. This would help mitigate the conflict in Donbbad, but it would also lessen the integration of Ukraine with Europe. This would transform the conflict between the West and Moscow. Relations between the United States and Russia are likely to remain unclear and tense, but the link with the EU could improve. In the event of Poroshenko's victory, the status quo prevails. "

However, it is likely that the greatest risk to the future of the region does not come from the triumph of either candidate, but from the possibility of a political crisis. It would not be surprising that the Kremlin, or the pro-Russian militia operating in the east of Ukraine, are trying to seize the opportunity to win a triumph.. This could be the beginning of a much deeper and more dangerous crisis.