"The situation is very serious, the breakdowns are more numerous": the dark scenario that sees the experts for Venezuela

Lack of infrastructure, investment and maintenance threaten to extend indefinitely mbadive power cuts in Venezuela, which intensified in early March, without being able to see a halo of hope in this crisis for Venezuelans.

Struck by the economic crisis, the people of this once prosperous oil country also suffer from lack of water, communication problems and reduced transportation after several days of work. mbadive power outages that could last for months or even years, warned the specialists consulted by AFP.

"This will continue, the situation is very serious, there is more blackout and rationing. In the whole complete system generate between 5,500 and 6,000 megawatts of installed capacity of 34,000 megawatts"he said to AFP Winton Cabas, president of the Venezuelan Association of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering (Aviem)

Tote says that Chavismo was found "without skilled labor" after the exodus of some 25,000 workers in the electricity sector, in the middle of a diaspora of 2.7 million Venezuelans emigrated since 2015.

Nicolás Maduro, under whose leadership the country with the largest oil reserves in the world, has cut its economy by half and is further stifled by inflation that is expected to reach 10 000 000% in 2019, according to the IMF, because from a shortage of commodities, blame electrical sabotage failures.

But The collapse of electricity has already hit hard in 2010 when the late Hugo Chávez (1999-2013) announced a rationing in the states of the interior of Venezuela, it has been argued that a severe drought has brought to critical levels the Guri Dam (Bolívar State, in the south), source of 80% of the water. electricity of the country.

The Guri hydropower plant is the second largest in Latin America after Itaipu (Brazil-Paraguay). Originally the design of the system predicted that 60% would be generated by hydroelectric plants and 40% by thermoelectric plants, which explains the vulnerabilityHe said at AFP José Aguilar, Venezuelan consultant based in the United States.

"In the last 20 years there was an abuse of infrastructure due to lack of maintenance and postponement of development plans "Said Aguilar. In addition, he explained that a "deprofessionalisation" marked by the "political partisanship" of the electricity sector was added, aggravated by the nationalization ordered by Chávez in 2007.

After years of consecutive power outages, mainly in the oil tanker Zulia, on the border with Colombia on March 7, 2019, the country 's longest blackout had been recorded so far. Caracas and 22 states were left in the dark for five days. A few days later, on March 25, a new blackout of electricity began, leaving all Venezuela without intermittent light.

Impact of power outages
The regime claims that the March 7 failure was caused by a "cyber attack" of Guri's brain and by an "electromagnetic attack" on transmission lines led by the United States with the support of the US government. opposition, headed by parliamentary leader Juan Guaidó, recognized as president in charge of Venezuela by more than 50 countries.

But Guaidó, who called on opponents to go out to protest every time the lights go out, denied these versions again and again.

The impact of power cuts on oil production, source of 96% of revenues, adds a drama to the situation. Workers said anonymously that during power outages, production in areas such as Lake Maracaibo (Zulia) is paralyzed.

"Years to recover the system"
The aggressiveness of power cuts has effects for both the opposition and the ruling party, according to badyst Felix Seijas.

On the Chavismo side, "until where will the government sow doubt about an opposition's involvement in this crisis?" And to where can one sow the belief that? they are strong enough to leave in the short term? "

On the other hand, adds Seijas, it remains to be seen to what extent Guaidó "can inject enough fuel to maintain the popular energy and continue to convey the perception of having control".

With the widespread rejection of the population, Maduro announced on March 27 a rationing that he called "freight administration", but he did not specify whether the cuts, which total a decade to the end of the year, would not have been enough. Venezuela, would expand to Caracas.

AT specialists, the solution is linked to a change of political model. "Power outages are a consequence of a political, institutional and economic model," he said. AFP the badyst Luis Salamanca. What happens is the sum of "abandonment of activity, corruption, incompetence"he explained. "It's the equation of destruction," he added.

Still "leaving the government, It will take between seven and eight years to rebuild the electrical system (…), it took many years to build it and destroy it, "said Cabas, and it will be harder to rebuild it with the brutal economic crisis, which will worsen with the entry US economic sanctions come into effect on August 28. April

(With information from AFP / Margioni Bermúdez)