Where is ISIS going to create his next caliphate?

A few days ago, ISIS lost its last stronghold of the caliphate that he had created in Syria. During the past year, many rushed to declare their extinction, without any fundamental principle. President Trump, imitating George Bush when he announced the victory in Iraq, said repeatedly that he had already eliminated them. But that did not materialize until the end of Marchafter months of fighting and many casualties.

Jihadist militias are today the most resistant warriors. They have an extraordinary power of resilience. Also, obviously, an extreme fanaticism and a great madness. Kurdish and Turkish commanders who fought and locked them on the banks of the Euphrates, ensure that it is "a force made up of 'zombies & # 39; who apparently die but a few minutes later they appear alive behind a"They move in corridors that burrow under the city and band together in a few minutes, struggling to the death, convinced that we still expect that they have a life." Better also in the afterlife They also have a pool of fighters who keep them unbalanced, even if they are sane enough to maintain a clear strategic, diabolical and expansionist vision. EI has lost its Syrian-Iraqi caliphate the size of Britain, but many of its activists have managed to escape and are currently developing worldwide..

The Islamic State, ISIS or Daesh in its denomination in Arabic, is today in a certain way, more dangerous than before: freed from any governmental responsibility, you can focus on the more traditional insurgency and terrorism. The group has the means, the experience and the commands for these tasks. They say in their releases that in 2018, they committed an average of 11 attacks a day worldwide. In Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, their kamikazes explode almost daily. And militiamen who have been disconnected carry jihadism very deeply. They will wait for the moment to regroup or join other terrorist groups. Thousands have left Syria and are already in Libya, Mali, Yemen, Iraq, the Philippines and Afghanistan. It's a matter of time before they're trying to create a new caliphate, even if it's more virtual and it has neither the reach nor the power to control cities like Mosul.

In addition, while their fighters will flee the liberated territories, they will wear their mark of jihad, the Islamic holy war, on other battlefields. Many will join terrorist groups on anarchic lands such as Libya, Mali and Yemen. Those remaining in Syria will probably join former Al Qaeda affiliates who control the Idlib province. Others will surely focus on the export of terrorism in Europe and Asia. They will be more elusive. They will move all the time. They will not be concentrated in one territory as they have done until now.

ISIS is no longer a "state" of any kindNow it is simply one of many terrorist organizations operating in secret and constantly changing hiding places. It will also limit the group's ability to recruit combatants and raise funds. Now he will have to compete with other jihadist organizations without the special support he has received by selling the construction of a paradise on this conquered territory between Syria and Iraq. While occupying the caliphate, he collected hundreds of millions of dollars a month through the sale of oil and the collection of taxes to the ten million inhabitants of his territory.

The advantage of ISIS is that it has accumulated political prestige Among the jihadists, the majority of Muslims reject it absolutely, which allows it to impose a certain authority on other Islamic terrorist organizations. In the same way that it had already happened with Al Qaeda, many small groups around the world arrogated to themselves the right to be part of the organization as they "crossed "a chain of fast foods. The leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has declared himself commander of all jihadists. Its ability to conquer and preserve a territory, including large cities such as Mosul, has convinced its claims of loyalty. And while other terrorist groups do not recognize Al Baghdadi as their boss, and jihadist theorists see it as a dangerous arrogance, few question their success. Other groups tried to control certain territories, but they resisted for only a few days and could never fully impose their tussle on a population as large as the one that governed the territory. Islamic State.

"Many will try to imitate them, even if it will be very difficult for them to realize because they no longer have the surprise factor, like the Islamic State that appeared out of nowhere, swept the borders and ruled for years three years. Millions of people, Baghdadi continues to have this leader's aura that will expand to other countries, "he told the magazine. Foreign AffairsFawaz Gerges, professor at the London School of Economics and author of "ISIS: A History".

"If this is the case and if the next terrorist state can recreate the conditions imposed by al-Baghdadi at the height of its power, You will enjoy the benefits of ISIS and you will face the same danger, both in its immediate neighborhood and in the rest of the world ", comments the prestigious magazine.In this case, a single question arises: where could emerge the next caliphate?

There have already been many attempts to create Emirates, from northern Nigeria to the southern Philippines. What allowed the Islamic State to develop was a set of special conditions. Al-Baghdadi was able to claim large tracts of territory because local forces were not willing to fight, as in northern Iraq, or were faced with other urgent problems , such as the civil war in Syria. In both countries, he has been able to capitalize on ethnic and sectarian enmities, whether between Shiites and Sunnis or between Arabs and Kurds. Its location was also privileged. The jihadists around the world who called Al Baghdadi could hide between tourists and under the gaze of customs agents, across Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan.

ISIS has managed to develop in Syria, especially in the face of the negligence of the United States and other Western powers. The Islamic State developed when Barack Obama's government was occupied by the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and refused to get involved in the Syrian civil war. "Terrorist groups with territorial ambitions tend to withdraw quickly when the United States appears and strikes them with forcesays Daniel Byman of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. In Syria, US troops were absent during the first three years of war. "This combination of circumstances (the collapse of the order, the existence of internal hostilities, the proximity of major transport networks and the lack of attention of Western governments) may not to be exactly reproducible in any country or territory, but some places have many of these characteristics.

In principle, there is the same country where the Al-Baghdadi militiamen have just lost their caliphate. Syria is still very volatile and many jihadists remain camouflaged. It is believed that there are at least several squads of ISIS fighters in the Idlib province, in the north-east of the country, dominated by a dissident faction of al-Qaeda. . The so-called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has become the dominant force among rebel groups who oppose the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Turkey supports some of these groups and has negotiated with them a ceasefire in this border area. As a result of this truce, Hayat Tahir al Sham took over the administration of the province, imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law – not very different from that of the Islamic State – and imposed "taxes" trucks carrying humanitarian aid to the province. area In contrast to the Islamic State, he did not claim statehood and, until now, he was respecting the ceasefire agreement. HTS has more than 10,000 highly trained fighters, including many veterans of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Libya is the other country where ISIS already occupies a territory and continues to live in a chaotic situation.. In 2016, the Libyan forces managed to take over the invaded area, but it was never able to completely eradicate the jihadists. Libyan forces are now divided between those who are loyal to the government and those who obey the orders of "warlord" Khalifa Haftar. According to reports from Western intelligence agencies, hundreds of Islamic State fighters have reportedly been displaced to the Libyan coast in recent days. The Libyan Interior Minister has warned that this invasion will be difficult to stop. The borders of the country with Egypt and Tunisia are too porous.

The endless war in Yemen also offers a good opportunity for these terrorists. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has conquered and ruled the south of the country twice. They also changed position according to their convenience. For a time they negotiated with Yemeni Shiite rebels, Hutus, backed by Iran, and at another time with the Sunni Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. AQAP fighters had to retreat from the vast areas they controlled, but managed to carry a large arsenal of US weapons into the hands of the Arabs. AQPA has demonstrated that it can recruit militiamen from the local population and "evolving capacity" absent from the vast majority of jihadist organizations. In 2012, after his first attempt to rule the south of the country, the group's leader, Nasir al-Wuhayshi, wrote to his counterpart of the North African subsidiary of al-Qaeda to expose the lessons learned from the 39; failure. He warned, for example, that it was not necessary to impose religious laws that were too strict. Wuhayshi was killed in 2015 during an attack using American UAVs, but the group has maintained the pragmatism and openness that it has touted. He worked in coordination with local tribal leaders and instead of imposing his religious practices on the majority of Sunnis under his rule, he presented himself as a shield of defense against the excesses of Hutu Shiites.

Finally, is Mali where a branch of the North African affiliate of al-Qaeda, recipient of the Wuhayshi guide, advances by conquering vast desert areas and tribal villages dedicated to livestock. The Islamist and Muslim Support Group (JNIM) is an ally of local pastoral communities who have a longstanding feud with farmers. They took retaliatory measures and created their own militias, which accumulate accusations of genocide. The presence of the French and United Nations peace forces has so far prevented a major civil war. But JNIM continues its expansion and attacks the positions of the UN and French peacekeepers. It has also been detected in its ranks the presence of "old" Arabs "of the Islamic State.

And of course, we must never forget the hundreds of veterans who managed to return to Europe and that we believe that they have also entered United States. It would be absurd to think that they could control some of the territories there. But they can work efficiently in cells. Among them, you can only expect them to spread terror. It's your essence, beyond where you are.