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For the director of the World Bank in Argentina, this is going in the right direction. He stressed that the change in the rules of the game is "permanent"
"Confident that the Central Bank is independent, trusting institutions and laws." Confidence is a key ingredient in reducing dollar volatility and volatility is now lower than it was before the new policies agreed with the Fund. International Monetary Fund (IMF), but the Argentineans are wary of the peso and decide that it will take a lot of time"warned Jesko Hentschel, director of the World Bank for Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.
The official pointed out that the change of the rules of the game in Argentina is "permanent" throughout its history and that this factor has an impact on the macroeconomy. In your opinion the country "had no choice" but to resort to the IMF although the cost in terms of activity – described in the World Bank report – is high.
Hentschel understands that December and January would have marked the floor of the decline in production and that, in the future, the indicators will improve, but the year will end with a drop of about 1.7% of GDP. There would be growth only in 2020. In addition, he stressed that the combination of measures indicated by the Fund was a "fair way", in addition to the policy of "competence" that the government continues.
Hentschel told La Nación that The first part of a $ 1 billion disbursement from the World Bank will take place in late May or early June., designed to support ongoing plans for the most vulnerable sectors such as the Universal Child Benefit (AUH) and the social rate applicable to public services.
The executive stressed the need to implement structural reformssuch as social security and work, but accompanied by programs "protect the most vulnerable, the lower middle clbad"
He acknowledged that it is always "simpler and better" to proceed with these transformations with increasing economic activity, "but it is a task to be accomplished". Hentschel badured that this type of reforms they require a broad consensus among political parties and the different sectors of society.
In this context, he said that Argentina was still one of the world's most closed economies. "It is the fourth most closed country and an opening is necessary, but this must be done with an extremely strong and targeted social policy ".
"It is clear that a fiscal convergence of 2.7% of GDP has an impact on the economy and causes recession, but for us, the framework of this combination of fiscal and monetary policy is appropriate and will in the right direction, "he said. and admitted that one less volatile currency market is "important because he's attacking the inflationary expectations"
Although he acknowledged that inflation is "very high," excluded the risk of hyperinflation: "Inflation does not only have an impact on monetary policy, but also on confidence in institutions and on the maintenance of forward exchange rate policy."
The World Bank has also warned that real income "has lost 17% against inflation" over the last year, in addition to the pbadage of many formal sector workers to informality.
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