The countries of the European Union, divided before an extension of Brexit – 04/07/2019

The European Union (EU) will decide Wednesday whether to accept the British Prime Minister's request Theresa May and grant London a second extension of the Brexit, the British leave the EU. Block governments are divided and the pit is visible because of one side Germany and the other France.

The German government is at the head of the most flexible, those who do not see favor with the short extension requested by May (but until June 30), but which would grant a long extension to the British participation in the European elections. at the end of May. .

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This group includes, among others, the Scandinavians, the Netherlands, Hungary and especially Ireland, the country that has the most to lose if a Brexit is produced without agreements. The German Angela Merkel says for days who will do everything possible to avoid a crude British exit.

On the other side, appear in a group led by France, Spain, Belgium or Luxembourg. They see no reason to give this long extension. French President Emmanuel Macron has said several times in recent weeks that the EU could only become hostage to the British crisis.

These governments want a short extension because they think it would put London on a final decision: accept the agreement or be forced to skip the gap of any agreement. They believe that the British, after breaking their teeth, would come back and plead for an agreement.

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His critics, those who defend the long extension, believe that the group led by France is moving into a position that increases the chances of a break without agreement or that London continues to ask for short extensions. They say that the long extension keeps all options on the table, including the ability to revoke the process.

The European institutions argue that the long extension avoids short extensions and, although this seems a minor aspect, it is necessary to hold extraordinary summits every month and to be able to start attracting political attention to the situation. ;other questions. But they also recognize that with the remaining time, British MPs are under pressure.

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If the meeting of European ambbadadors last Friday left the movement led by France to strengthen the European position, the German government has acted this weekend. The information processed Sunday by diplomatic representatives badured that Angela Merkel would ready to accept the short extension asked by May as a way to avoid a Brexit without agreements and to continue to put pressure on British MPs.

The two groups, which will try to find a common position at the meeting of Foreign Ministers to be held Monday, agree that regardless of the extension granted, a series of conditions must be attached. This is to avoid that the United Kingdom, with May at the controls or command in Brussels, with a Europhobe such as Boris Johnson, agrees to stick to the wheels of the bloc, which must decide in 2020 on its multiannual budget for the period 2021-2027. or to renew during the last months of this year to his high office.

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As a compromise solution, the idea of ​​a long and flexible extension presented by the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, could be opened. According to him, it would be appropriate to grant a one – year extension that the British could terminate if they wished they approved for the first time the agreement concluded with the United States. EU and that they had already rejected three times.

No one in Brussels believes that intransigents will block an extension (one country would be enough to prevent it) because it would act in practice to expel the British from the bloc. Thus, during the last ambbadadorial meetings, the debate determines whether a short or long extension should be granted.

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All those conditioned by Theresa May manage to make a commitment to the Labor Party Jeremy Corbyn and to present on Wednesday in Brussels a credible plan, which he would never have done before and that their European counterparts would see as a miracle.