Intense hours for change – Infobae

Without a doubt, President Mauricio Macri's government is going through intense hours. This is no longer a sector of radicalism, said Federico Storani, Jorge Sappia and Ricardo Alfonsin, who are asking for a policy change to continue as part of the change. It is the governor Gerardo Morales, on behalf of the five governors of radicalism, who asks him "an urgent helmet to reactivate the economy" because "people do not give more". He warns his government that without this he can not guarantee that the national convention of the European Union, which will meet in May, will endorse the continuity of political society.

In parentheses, Dr. Jorge Sappia, chairman of the said convention, has not yet been summoned to convene it. About Morales' readings, there are two readings: that of reflecting the painful reality experienced in Argentina, especially in the interior of the country; but there could also be a metamessage, which is to counter the statements of the head of cabinet, Marcos Peña, who believes that the group arrived in 2015 is untouchable and does not admit new members.

Morales' request could also be read as a continuation of the actions that radicalism produced in the last time. The governors Alfredo Cornejo de Mendoza and Morales de Jujuy stood out from the electorate of President Macri by organizing the elections in their districts. Now the second stage speaks of the impossibility of containing radicalism within the electoral alliance.

I insist with the hours of tension that the government lives because, furthermore, the economist Carlos Melconian, with a difference in hours, was energetic with two badertions. He first said, "I do not believe in Marcos Peña either." That goes back to the president himself, who always said Peña was Macri. Melconian's second statement was: "Investments do not come because we have gone astray." This is the first time anyone who was part of the government and continues as part of his project recognizes that capital does not come from endogenous failures.

With regard to the public order of the governor of Jujuy to the government, it is very difficult to access because it is absolutely subject to the requirements of the IMF. Simultaneously with the demands of Morales, the international body suggests to the government, given that the collection is below expectations, to deepen the adjustment with measures such as the increase Rates or VAT rate increase 10., 5 percent. The latter would have an impact on the basic basket, as well as on education and health. In other words, it would increase unemployment, poverty and exclusion.

Simply IMF proposals to increase revenue counter any economic reactivation. If we followed this path, everything would indicate that social intolerance would increase in the face of an increased tax burden, just like electoral malnutrition.

A sector of economists consulted understands that the decline in revenues is predictable and will continue to be, as it is not a problem of lack of control, but of business need facing the decline of economic activity. They also say that before an exchange of currencies, which, in their opinion, should not take place, the government can deal with it if it is not mbadive, not only for the 60 million dollars per day allowed for this purpose by the IMF, but also because in May, June July would appear between 15 and 20 billion dollars from the harvest. And because it is clear that Even the government could make certain demands of the IMF more flexible given the proximity of the elections and the good harmony it has with the agency.

The government, with its monetarist strategy, lost its policy instruments, which caught up with it. To get out of his own trap, he should create reactivating instruments that are now unthinkable. For the moment, everything would indicate that the strategy is focusing on the economy so that it stops falling. This is visualized with the L figure, reaching a level and staying there for the remaining 6 months until October.

The economists consulted argue that the most serious problem is the inaccurate diagnosis of the causes of inflation. Argentine inflation is relative prices and expectations. The Israelis, in order to solve a problem similar to ours, agreed that indexing was done in the future and not in the past. We could summarize that Argentina's current economic problems are the exchange rate, inflation and the use of the dollar. The Argentine economy is binary, we pay in pesos but we think in dollars.

Meanwhile, in the political arena does not leave Argentina to reflect a strange situation: President Macri said that he would be re-election candidate and ratified. However, the policy in doubt. The other two candidates, not candidates, but acting as such, Cristina de Kirchner and Roberto Lavagna, the policy does not doubt that they will be presented.

Another rarity: the national polls speak of parity between Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri. Meanwhile, in provincial elections, the photo shows that their candidates are in second or third place.