Exporters sold an unexpected figure and stopped the dollar when he was fired

Argentina are two countries. One where the dollar is king and the other inhabited by other financial market badets.

It was clear on the last lap. As the dollar fell unexpectedly and pushed the idea of ​​a trigger and the Treasury bills were almost entirely renewed in dollars, the stock market collapsed in the other country, the Argentine newspapers quoted in New York and the dollar debt obligations.

If the low price of the dollar reflects credibility, the country risk openly contradicts it. Investors are even wary of bonds that expire next year. As a result, the benchmark debt, Bonar 2024, decreased by 0.55%, but was recovered with the rise in US Treasury bonds. The risk therefore increased by 5 basis points (+ 1.37%) to reach the annual maximum of 814 basis points.

The operator screens were overloaded with offers of Argentine bonds., something that does not happen with the debt securities of other countries of the continent. In Chile and Mexico, country risk declined by one point and in Brazil it remained unchanged.

On that day, several factors prompted exporters to close close to $ 100 million and turn to a booming wholesale market. At the best time of the day, he quoted $ 43.90. The central bank came to contain it in the futures market and continued to sell its positions at the end of the month, at the end of May and in June, to a lesser extent.

But exporters decided that it was a good selling price, since the dollar was weak in the world. Against the six major currencies, it lost 0.38% and in the region it was slightly against the Brazilian real, against the Chilean peso and against the Mexican peso.

The fall, one hour from the end, was resounding. It first stopped at $ 43.70, and then dropped only at the low end of the day, or $ 43.41, which represents a loss of 34 cents, or 0.77%. On two wheels, the currency lost 56 cents (-1.27%).

Of course the amount of business has exceeded normal. USD 645 million, against 568 million the day before. The difference in volume was marked by the exporters.

This also influenced the decision to sell the IMF's expected income of USD 10,835,000. Although this movement has been updated, it has a psychological effect on the market. These dollars will start selling at a rate of USD 60 million a day starting next week. Exporters have covered this offer and have preferred a bird in hand, a dollar worth $ 43.90, to risk an additional loss.

The final data that encouraged them to sell more dollars than usual led to the discovery that dollar bills had been almost fully renewed. Of the $ 1,016 million owed, just over 200 million are in the hands of the state. As a result, private companies offered 814 million euros, of which 700 million USD accepted at 4.50%. The fear was that the renewal was limited because they expire after the presidential elections and before the probable date of the poll.

It also does not do badly with the capitalizable letters. He placed the $ 38 billion that he had planned with a 55% interest rate, which equates to a monthly income of 4.59% and an effective interest rate of more than 66.4% for accrued interest capitalized monthly. .

"The planets were aligned for the foreign exchange market," said one operator. And it was like that. In banks and bureaux de change, 33 cents were sold under the previous day at a price of $ 44.50 (-0.76%). The "blue" has meanwhile lost nearly 1% and closed at 43.60 pesos.

The Central Bank continued to reduce interest rates in liquidity letter auctions (Leliq). He placed $ 204.751 million at 66.94% per annum for 7 days (-0.23 point). Since he could not cover all the deadlines, he released about $ 2.3 billion for Wednesday's wheel.

Reserves increased by USD 10,819 million to USD 77,478 million due to the entry of another tranche of USD 10,835 million from the IMF and set an all-time record. In addition, 33 million euros were earned for the rise of the euro, other currencies and gold and only 3 million USD were paid in Brazil.

The stock market was a slip that ended at least from the wheel. The S & P Merval lost not less than 4.04% with a strong activity for 777 million dollars, which made the fall lasting. The worst was the gas companies that lost more than 7%. Supervielle was among the most punished banks with a 6.3% retracement. The same percentage of loss had Ternium.

On Wall Street, the debacle continued with the collapse of Argentine ADRs, dollar-denominated stock holding certificates, which did not have a single role in positive territory. This is Supervielle (-6.28%), Transportadora Gas del Sur (-5.83%) and Central Puerto (-5.67%) who lost the most.

On Wednesday, another round is expected where the Central Bank seems to have completed the arsenal it needed: the IMF's dollars and the liquidations of the harvest. But in Argentina, everything is happening at the speed of lightning. The mood of savers and investors will tell if the dollar bid will keep pace with Tuesday.