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The power of the international community to fight for democracy and threats to security is being tested in the case of Venezuela. Despite the sanctions and a major international coalition led by the United States and including the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union (EU), the government of Nicolas Maduro is determined to stay in power without offer nothing. in return.
Maduro appealed to his allies to help protect his turbulent government, especially Russia, Iran and China.
US military sources said that on March 24, 100 Russian soldiers and some 35 tons of military equipment arrived in Venezuela. Military badysts rightly pointed out that this Russian deployment was very similar to what Russia had shown to save another desperate ally of a popular uprising: Syrian Bashar al-Assad. Russia has long considered Venezuela as a global strategic ally in what Putin's regime views as a global chess game whose main opponent is the United States.
Currently, Russia is well positioned in Syria and Assad is totally dependent on Russia for its survival. Israel is an ally of the United States, but even Israel has recourse to Russia in the present circumstances. Last week, the body of an Israeli soldier missing in Syria since 1982 was returned to Israel thanks to the intervention of Russia. This act angered Syrians and Iranians and shows how Russia has consolidated its power and influence in a region where it was thought that Russia had been eliminated for a long time. Israel is also negotiating with Russia for support. The Russians have been smart enough to support Israel's security needs by allowing Israel to prevent Iran from consolidating its presence in Syria and preventing Hezbollah's armaments. Russia is smart enough to be on good terms with Israel. As a result, the power of Russia is developing effectively in the region.
Russia's firm defense of a dangerous dictator in the heart of the Western Hemisphere seems to reiterate the case of Syria: the regime will be saved at all costs and, in turn, will contribute to the survival of a whole repressive regional regimes.
Russia has a series of good allies in Latin America, mainly in Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia. If Russia did what it did in the Middle East, it can also do it in Latin America.
Similarly, the second largest Iranian airline, Mahan, has set up direct flights to Venezuela.
As the White House pointed out, business needs do not justify these thefts. This means that these flights can carry members and weapons of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or recently sanctioned Hezbollah fighters. Taking into account the fact that Iran and its representative terrorist groups are involved in a large number of Middle Eastern countries (including Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen), this intervention shows to what extent Maduro's survival is important for the Islamic Republic. The money generated by the drug trade has given a financial boost to Iran and the subversive activities of its representatives in the Middle East. Iran does not want to lose Venezuela, which is an important narco-state and a facilitator of Iranian narcoactivities. That is why Iran may be ready to deploy more of its fighters to Venezuela even though they are already scattered in several countries in the Middle East.
And then we have China. According to Admiral Craig Faller, China has embarked on a sophisticated misinformation campaign accusing the United States of recent power outages that have had devastating effects on the Venezuelan people and their economy. China has granted Venezuela more than $ 30 billion in loans. If the Chinese demand only the payment of the Venezuelan debt, it would not bother them that the president is Juan Guaido or Nicolás Maduro. However, China's preference for Maduro is clearly motivated by strategic considerations aimed at thwarting US power in the region. The fact is that the Chinese government has also provided supplies and military personnel to Venezuela to support the government.
Maduro's speech on the willingness to negotiate is nothing more than a time-saving project, while Russia, China and Iran are trying to secure their power. No one should be fooled by their motives.
The permanence of the Maduro regime is a geopolitical challenge for the United States. The recent decision to sanction oil companies in Cuba is a good step. Sanctions should be increased more and more. But that may not be enough. Russia, China and Iran must leave the Western Hemisphere. Their presence weakens and endangers the region.
What is worse is that the action of these three powers can lead the United States to something that has been avoided so far: a military intervention.
To avoid a military confrontation, we must adopt a naval blockade policy that I suggested in a recent article. More recently, Jed Babbin, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for President George W. Bush, went further. In Babbin's own words: "The last time we applied the Monroe Doctrine was in 1962, when the Soviet Union installed missiles with nuclear capabilities in Cuba, the resulting Cuban Missile Crisis. brought closer to nuclear war The Russian-Iranian effort to settle in Venezuela is nothing less than a violation of the Monroe doctrine (…) Trump may, for example, order an air and sea blockade in Venezuela to prevent Russia and Iran from developing their power there. (…) Time is running out, we are waiting to take decisive action against Russia and Iran the more difficult it will be to expel them from Venezuela and, unfortunately, expelling them is our only option ".
In fact, an air and naval blockade would mitigate the presence of the three mentioned countries. There are no flights or expeditions inside and outside Venezuela. The Monroe doctrine, which in the early 19th century stated that Latin America was a sphere of American influence, does not reflect the imperialist ambition of the United States. It is now a national and regional security imperative.
The author is a consultant and specialist in the Continental Security Project of the Security Policy Center in Washington, DC. He holds a Ph.D. in sociology, a collaborator from several American think tanks and an badociate professor of political science and sociology at Florida State Universities. He is the author, among other books, of Latin America in the post-Chavez era: the threat to security in the United States.
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