A new conservative drift fragments the Uruguayan right in this election year | Argentina

The primaries that will lead to the presidential elections next October are a decalogue of what was "not in the plans" of the center and right parties: the appointment of the unknown millionaire Juan Sartori, the candidacy of the former commander-in-chief of the army, Guido Manini Ríos and, to a lesser extent, the participation of former Colorado Party president, Julio María Sanguinetti, 83 years old.

In October 2018, the candidacy of Juan Sartori, Uruguayan and son-in-law of Russian magnate Dimitri Rybolovlev, took place. With a clever, totally unexpected maneuver, this almost unknown businessman, who has never lived in Uruguay, was registered with the National Party (PN or White Party, center-right), who could not deny participation in the primaries by adhering to the statutes. Without a device, a militant base or popularity, his presence in the race seemed like an anecdote, but he soon showed that he had many ways to buy advertising space and campaign.

This week, an investigation has denied all forecasts, showing that something was changing in Uruguay: according to the survey firm Cifra, Sartori already represents 17% of the intention to vote. Pou (son and grandson of white presidents of Uruguay) maintains his leading position with 40%, but in net regression. And in the electoral command of Lacalle Pou, the orange alert has been activated. "Now we have to take it into account, it's a reality that can not be ignored, even if it was not planned," said a source close to the NP.

The millionaire, who admits in the interviews that he has no program (since he builds it with people) and does not know what is the unemployment rate or the GDP of the company. Uruguay is omnipresent in the media and social networks. The campaign targeted a group of primary voters – open to the general population – located outside the party apparatus. On the other hand, by checkbook, has been added activists and supporters across the country.

This strategy opened a gap in the PN structure with the recent accession of Senator Veronica Alonso, who withdrew her own bid for the millionaire. Alonso is a well-known leader, supported by evangelical churches. Immediately, we started talking about a national party convention to name the candidate if none of them got a clear majority on June 30th.

While the internal PN is complicated, the opposition to the Frente Amplio (coalition of leftists who governs in Uruguay since 2005) must also take into account the formation of a political party by the army Guido Manini Rios, former commander in chief of Army. With an anti-system speech and in favor of the armed forces, his training, called Cabildo Abierto, is an unpublished political expression of the army in Uruguay.

Analyst Daniel Supervielle, close to the PN, believes that "what is happening throughout Latin America is the disappearance of the center, while politicians seek to polarize to win the opponent. The challenge is to know if it is possible for the Uruguayan center to resist this trend. "

Another element complicates the equation of the center-right field: the unexpected candidacy of former president Julio María Sanguinetti in the Colorado Party, who, because of his age (83 years), did not not revealed to be a potential player in these elections. But its increase in polls clearly shows that it must be taken into account.

Until June 30, there will still be a lot going on and even if the most predictable scenario is fulfilled and Luis Lacalle Pou becomes the presidential candidate with the best chance to beat the Amplio Front in October, nothing will be more like before: Uruguayan politics entered the 21st century.