The Libyan war in the current geopolitics | The p …

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According to the WHO (World Health Organization), more than 140 dead (including at least 35 children), 600 injured and some 18,000 displaced people, are the result of 14 days of battle between the two governments in power. Libya, the Tripoli recognized by the UN and led by Fayez Al Sarraj, and that of Tobruk (in the east of the country) led by General Khalifa Haftar. If an agreement is not found, the situation announces much more serious in a short period of time. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) yesterday called for the urgent release of the 1,500 refugees and migrants locked up in detention camps. But the Italian Interior Minister, right wing Matteo Salvini, insisted that all Italian ports would be closed.

Why was this point reached in Libya? What can be the consequences of this conflict? What will happen to thousands of migrants imprisoned in Libyan prisons? To these and other questions, answered the expert from the North African country, the Italian Claudia Gazzini, addressing foreign journalists in Rome, then in an interview with PáginaI12. Gazzini is a historian and since 2012 has worked for the International Crisis Group, an independent organization that researches and advises countries on ways to avoid wars. In 2017-2018 she was a consultant to Ghbadan Salamé, the UN representative in Libya.

-Why has this point been reached in Libya?

-The reasons that explain this crisis are basically three. The first is that the geopolitical scenario has changed in recent months. In addition to Haftar's traditional allies (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt), some European countries have also benefited from the support of recent months. France, for example, over the past year, has contacted Haftar and, in a way, Italy, which has been trying to establish relations with both parties since the conference which It is held with the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and the two leaders. Libyans in Sicily a few months ago. Traditional opponents of Haftar (Turkey, Algeria, Qatar) are less known.

– The other reasons?

The second reason is the failure of negotiations between the UN and the two governments to try to reach an agreement. In Abu Dhabi – capital of the United Arab Emirates – Haftar and Serraj met on February 27 for three hours. But nothing was done and that is why on April 4, Haftar began to advance with his forces towards Tripoli. The third and last reason relates to the economic situation of the Haftar government, which over the last four years has managed to finance itself without oil (Libya's fundamental industry). To survive, he issued a digital currency, that is, a kind of treasury bill, but he now has financial problems.

– Some think that Haftar could be a chance for the new Kadhafi. What are his relations with the numerous tribes in Libya and with whom Gaddafi had good relations?

-Haftar thinks that before making elections, it is necessary to create stability in the country and for this, it is necessary to strengthen the military forces and to put forward a powerful military leader like him. There is no doubt that his plan provides for an authoritarian regime, perhaps more authoritarian than that of Gaddafi. Unlike Gadafi, who had progressive or socialist ideas, Haftar is a capitalist, a liberal. But both have cultivated their relations with the tribes, an important factor in Libya for some stability because they are numerous especially in the south of the country and in the east, but not in urban centers like Tripoli or Misratah. I do not think that the relationship with the tribes can change the war, for which the most important is the geopolitical scenario, the relationship with other countries.

– If the war continues, what can we expect for African migrants in detention camps – concentration camps as some call them – where they are enslaved by human traffickers? humans in the expectation of reaching Europe?

– In case of war, there is a risk of humanitarian crisis, because the food will be rare, it will not be possible to distribute it, prices will increase. And this applies to Libyans and immigrants. Moreover, in wartime, the economy of war intensifies and part of this war economy is to trade with the lives of human beings. In my opinion, this situation will increase migrant shipments in Italy and if the war continues, it will be not only migrants, but also Libyans.

Countries like the United States, Russia, France, which side are they on?

-Washington tried to stop Haftar in advance. But we do not know what they would have done if Haftar continued. They condemn the offensive but have not implemented any policy of opposition to Haftar. As for France, it is said that there are French military advisers in Haftar. Also the Russians. But that does not mean a direct French intervention in the war. France is very ambiguous and tries to maintain its own ambiguity. Russia, on the other hand, has good relations with both governments. From the military point of view, it is said that there is a flow of military equipment from Russia and Tobruk's riparian states, based on contracts established in the time of Gaddafi and never respected before. There is also talk of important future oil deals between Russia and Libya if the situation is resolved. Russia also played a role financially because it recognized Tobruk 's central bank, which was not recognized internationally, which allowed it to issue money and finance Haftar.

– What is the Italian policy towards Libya?

– You can not talk about a real Italian policy towards Libya at the moment. Italy had not received a proposal from him at the meeting in Sicily and he had to seek advice from the UN. When Gaddafi and Silvio Berlusconi were in power in Italy, Italian interests were better protected than today. But also the interests of other countries. In Libya, which was an Italian colony between 1911 and 1947, Italy also has economic interests thanks to the ENI (national entity of Hisdrocarburos) which controls the exploitation of several oil and gas wells. And oil wells can be bombed in case of war.

– What do you think needs to be done to solve the crisis?

– The priority issue is to stop the fighting and to ask the United Nations Security Council to take a firmer stance and restart negotiations between the two sides. Regional powers should not intervene. If the ceasefire is reached, the UN should begin political negotiations with more actors than before to reach an agreement, as well as dialogue with the military leaders both parties and the economic dialogue with the parties. financial institutions of both sectors.

-A conflict like this in Libya would not facilitate the advance of Islamic terrorists?

– Certainly, a war in Libya gives the possibility to Islamic groups to join this war. They regard Haftar as their main enemy, the one who fought them the most. These groups could combine in Tripoli and thus advance their ideology. Moreover, in times of war, there are empty spaces, because the armies can not cover everything and could be occupied by terrorists.