The Guaidó government hopes that the impact of the sanctions on Maduro will begin to be felt at the end of the month.

If the forecasts of the president's officials are respected Juan GuaidóAt the end of April and especially in May, food shortages and power outages will reach dramatic levels in Venezuela. In the environment of the interim president, they believe that in a net food importing country, the lack of foreign exchange will supplant the Russian and Indian oil companies to restrict trade with the regime. Nicolás Maduro after the sanctions imposed by the United States, and will bring the humanitarian crisis to levels never seen before.

Contrary to previous attempts to move the Chavez regime, this time they believe in the interim government, Guaidó enjoys the support of the majority of the Venezuelan people, increasingly opposed to the regime as the difficulties intensify. In addition, they emphasize that Guaidó managed to gather behind his silhouette all the opposition to the regime, once that affected the interior and the divisions.

In diplomatic circles, the same uncertainty and skepticism reign. This was perceived, for example, at a private meeting organized by the Ambbadador of Peru in Buenos Aires, John Peter Cannock RoadAnd from which he participated Elisa Trotta, ambbadador appointed by the government of Guaidó in Argentina. While the imminence of a possible US military intervention emanated from Washington, prominent Argentinian international badysts on Wednesday at noon discussed proposals and means of action in favor of Cannock Road, Trotta and Argentine diplomats who closely follow the situation in Venezuela.

The 13 countries of Lima Group Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and St. Lucia – besides the United States, are nowhere near two-thirds (24%). voices) necessary to achieve a resolution of the Organization of American States (OAS) that has some kind of enforceability. Contrary to what happened in the past, when the United States joined the small Caribbean nations in votes related to the dictatorship of the Castro brothers in Cuba – that is the block of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay – they are currently those Caribbean countries that block the possibility of closing the closure of the OAS on Maduro.

Although since Hugo Chávez, the Venezuelan regime is able to guarantee the loyalty of the small Caribbean countries on the basis of cheap oil, it is essential to meet the relatively low energy demand of these countries in return for a favorable vote. An badyst suggested that this system was quite accessible in the United States, in addition to being much less unpopular and expensive than a military intervention.

The Cuban situation was also part of the conversation. At a time when the United States has recently tightened sanctions on Cuba, the same badyst said that the European Union should build a bridge with Havana, which, in the badumption of the same. a fall of the Maduro regime, would be deprived of access to Venezuelan oil, isolated and thrown to his fate.

Beyond the region, the Guaidó government's talks with the Chinese government surprised Venezuelan diplomats, perhaps because the communist government was fed up with the transitional government to guarantee their investments and respect the contracts. .

However, the involvement of Russia in the Venezuelan crisis with the recent arrival of a hundred soldiers and war material exceeds the economic interest. Beyond the debt, Russian interests in the Venezuelan oil sector and in some billionaire defense contracts, what is at stake are the desires (and the capacity) of Vladimir Poutine to project Russia as a power. Therefore, in the face of fears that the Kremlin is attempting to replicate a scenario similar to that of Syria in Venezuela, a reputed badyst linked to the leaders of the Argentine government suggested putting the negotiations back on the road to the Group of 8.

In the coming days, the government of Guaidó will present in Buenos Aires some of its projects of displacement of Maduro and reconstruction of Venezuela. If their omens are filled, the presentation will coincide with the worsening of the humanitarian crisis. All this, in the eyes of the governments of the countries that make up the Lima group, who closely follow the President's steps, to see if he manages to maintain the dynamism and centrality that reached their peak during the first few years. month of the year.