Venezuelan refugees could exceed 8 million by the end of 2020 – 22/04/2019

The Preliminary report on the crisis of Venezuelan migrants and refugees in the region This is a document prepared by the OAS (Organization of American States), known in recent weeks. From the causes that lead the exodus to the prediction of what might happen in the years to come, it is a work that seeks to contextualize and quantify one of the deepest tragedies of our time. In this sense, the prognosis is not encouraging: if there is no significant change in the situation, the number of Venezuelan migrants could exceed 8 million people by the end of 2020.

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The report he had access to Clarin and that this was done by the OAS Working Group on the Venezuelan Refugee Crisis, revolves around three key points. First, it seeks to explain the causes of mbad migration of Venezuelans; Then, try to put the numbers of this exodus in context with similar events in Syria and Afghanistan. finally, make a forecast of what could happen in 2019 and 2020 and examine the state of the funding invested in the issue.

The report, explained in the first pages, aims to help "create the basis for a regional agreement providing care and protection for Venezuelan migrants and refugees in the Americas". The next step is the preparation of a new report, which should be ready in June, where they will give "recommendations to governments for the attention and protection"of those who had to flee.

The coordinator of the working group is Venezuelan David Smolansky. Consulted by Clarin by mail, explained that the regional agreement is quite advanced and that it contains "the majority of the OAS members, the focus being on the places where there is the most of victims ". "To governments they will be advised to pay attention and protect Venezuelan migrants and refugeesand focus on issues such as citizen security, human rights, training, job integration and health, among others, "he added.

To make the report, the group based its work on field work (they visited the border three times Colombia and Venezuela), consultations with civil society and research and own contributions.

numbers

The suffering endured by Venezuelans for several years has been documented in numerous articles and reports. In this sense, the report prepared by the OAS seeks to establish a narrative of the tragedy with the help of numbers and figures.

Until the end of 2018, about 3.4 million Venezuelans (more than 10% of the population) had fled to various destinations in Latin America and the Caribbean (the report only takes into account migrations in the region, so it does not take into account those who have emigrated to Europe or the United States. United).

Colombia is the main host country for refugees, with about 1.2 million inhabitants. Peru (700,000), Chile (265,000), Ecuador (250,000), Argentina (130,000) and Brazil (100,000) follow. At this point, we must highlight cases such as Curaçao, which received less than other places (26,000 people), but which, in proportion, represents 15% of the total population of the island.

The high flow of migrants in 2018 gives a shocking figure: about 5,000 people a day, 200 an hour they left the country. In turn, many of them leave in conditions of extreme vulnerability. According to a United Nations report cited in the report, more than 40% of people who have fled suffer from a nutritional problem. To this it must be added that they were carriers of diseases already eradicated from the region, such as tuberculosis, diphtheria and malaria.

Causes of the crisis

Among the main reasons cited in the report are the country's economic collapse, persecution and widespread violence, as well as social control and the limitation of freedoms.

On the economic front, with the already known data on hyperinflation and the shortage of food and medicine, the report adds the data that 87% of households are below the national poverty line. A statistic reflects that more than half of the population recorded an average weight loss of 11 kilos.

In the field of health, the numbers are equally impressive. According to sources cited in the report, infant mortality has increased by 30% and maternal mortality by 65% ​​since the regime stopped disclosing official figures in 2015.

Violence in the country is a central fact. According to a report by the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence quoted in the report, the number of homicides in 2018 was 23,047, a rate of 81.4 per 100,000 inhabitants. It is the highest on the continent and one of the highest in the world.

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In the area of ​​political persecution, the report quotes a report from the NGO Penal Forum, which stated in February 2019 that there were 966 political prisoners in the country. Reference is also made to the use of the "country map" (the type of identification required to access certain social benefits) as a mechanism by which "the government exercises social control".

The crisis in context

As recorded during these three years (2015-2018), figures from the Venezuelan crisis have a similar correlation to other similar episodes in the world, with the peculiarity that, in the case of Latin America, there is an exodus that was not caused by a warlike conflict.

The war in Syria, for example, would have caused a total of 6.3 million internally displaced people from the country between 2011 and 2017. Although in the case of Venezuela, all those fleeing do not have the same number of people. do not have the status of "refugee". "In the host countries, they correspond to a category that the United Nations calls" as refugees. "If a parallel is drawn between the two situations, the speed and growth of Venezuelan migrants are almost as great as those recorded in the Syrian case, during the same period.

Watch in front

By drawing a map of what will happen, the report is based on badyzes prepared by the UN and the Brooking Research Institute (hereinafter referred to as BI). The United Nations is making a linear projection, that is, baduming that the situation will not change in 2019 or 2020. According to this methodology, 5.4 million migrants are expected by the end of this year. the year and 7.5 million for next year.

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In the case of BI, it is an badysis based on the percentage of the Venezuelan population that will not be able to cover their basic nutritional needs, and therefore on the projections for 2019 and 2020. could reach 8.2 million Venezuelan refugees by the end of next year. It should be noted that the projection of the UN only concerns Latin America and the Caribbean, while the projection of the IB is limited to no region.

Regarding the future of the country and the validity of these forecasts, Smolansky said that "the exit (Maduro) will be imminent (…) As one could say in boxing, it's against the Tightrope knock him out. "