The fear that Cristina Kirchner will not pay the debt is a ghost that shakes the government and returns to it like a boomerang

Although there are indications that it was an official power station that said it was the one that had scared the investment funds advancing in front of them and that a possible government of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner would not know the agreement with the IMF and restructure the debt with the bond creditors, Emmanuel Álvarez Agis communicated the day before yesterday with one of the highest authorities of the financial sphere of the government and proposed to publicly deny itif he thought this could help calm the financial market panic that catapulted the dollar above $ 45 and the country's risk above 1,000 basis points.

The official denied any responsibility of the government in the dissemination of this version, he thanked him for the gesture, but he replied that he did not consider it necessary that the former deputy minister of the Kirchner's economy comes to clarify anything.

This was not the first time an economist has made statements abroad that, with or without intent, destabilize a government. The most significant case occurred in the middle of the government hecatomb Raúl Alfonsín and in the middle of the campaign that would end with Carlos Menem in the Casa Rosada. He was Domingo Felipe Cavallo who, during a tour of the United States as economist of the Peronist candidate, said that if the IMF maintained the current agreement with Argentina, this would be interpreted as support for the candidacy of the radical party. César Angelozand that, in this case, if Menem triumphed, he would not be aware of the foreign debt that was essentially in the portfolio of a handful of the world's largest banks.

It is impossible to determine if it is because of this action of Cavallo that the Monetary Fund has finally canceled the agreement, thus aggravating an already serious crisis. And although it is also counterfactual, the situation was such that even without the action of the former Minister of the Economy in Convertibility and also of Fernando de la Rúathe radical government would have ended badly.

But unlike Cavallo, the former head of Kirchner says that he has said nothing of destabilizing or similar to what is badigned to him in meetings with banks and investment funds. that he organized in New York more than a month ago as president. of the consulting firm PxQ. He bases his denial on the fact that none of his interlocutors visited has come to approve the version and that his local customers can testify to what he is telling them about the current situation.

There is no doubt that the big financiers and businessmen here and abroad do not want Cristina to come back, and that most of them fear and most likely that a government in turn will concretize what the version says.

However, beyond the prejudices, the construction of some media, statements by some economists and Kirchner leaders in the second and third lines, and the controversial rhetoric of Cristina on economic power, the record of his government has not weight on something similar to the ignorance of external obligations.

On the contrary and by saving the differences of style and time, both Amado Boudou, when he was minister under the name of Axel Kicillof during his tenure at the helm of the economy, was of the view that Argentina needed to Access external funding. Boudou could not even try because he was shocked by the refusal of Néstor Kirchner, who presided over a country in which there was still no money and where it was possible to "live with what is to we "and give airs of independence and autonomy. Even by paying in advance to the Fund a little over 9,000 million USD with the fallacious argument of avoiding the conditions that this agency was not able to impose, for the simple reason that there was no agreement in force.

Kicillof had the approval of Cristina Kirchner to resort to the international capital market and to go into debt. It was a country very different from that chaired by Néstor Kirchner, with an economy that had already hit the external strain. By conviction or because of the circumstances, removed the obstacles that closed the way to external financing. He paid the lost lawsuit in Ciadi, agreed to cancel the debt with the Paris Club, but failed to overcome the last barrier that was conflict with the vulture funds.

It is indisputable that the financial world would have applauded the respect of the decision of the late Judge Thomas Griesa, like Mauricio Macri. shortly thereafter badume But between this rebellion before an unfair decision in favor of vulture funds and the possible decision to default on private creditors who have invested in good faith in public securities, the distance is enormous.

A clearly unfounded species

Neither Kicillof as spokesman for Kirchner nor Alvarez Agis in his role as a sympathetic consultant for Cristina Kirchner said anything that could disturb the direct interests of banks, investment funds and other creditors.. At most, they mentioned the need to reformulate the current agreement with the Fund. A softness compared to what they propose to the renowned economists of establishments.

However, it is absolutely objective that the subjectivity of the financial world fears, among other things, that the return of Cristina involves forced restructuring or even more extreme decisions. If they did not fear it, stock prices would not have collapsed and the country risk would not oscillate at 1,000 basis points, as many more sell than those who buy bets at home. against the current.

This subjectivity is fully encouraged by the government, which from Macri down do not stop crushing the fact that the attitude of the markets is causing fear of Cristina, failing to know that he would not be afraid to "go back" if the results of the government were not disastrous. And this insistence only feeds the sale of bonds, the race against the peso and all the harm it triggers in terms of inflation, recession and, consequently, greater electoral complications for the government.

They spit. With the aggravating circumstance that boomerang effect them night to them and to the whole country.