Andrés Malamud answers: A "Portuguese way" is it possible for Argentina?

The "Portuguese way" seduces opponents of the government of Mauricio Macri, from Cristina Kirchner to Sergio Mbada, through Daniel Scioli, but the Argentine who knows perhaps better Portugal says no, that all this is an illusion . "Cristina a la Portuguesa" would be a dish between indigestible or impossible to serve for the next Argentine president. Whoever: Cristina, Mauricio Macri, Roberto Lavagna, Mbada or Scioli.

"Cristina would end up being like the curator Pedro Pbados Coelho: the great adjuster". The comparison was made by political scientist Andrés Malamud, researcher at the University of Lisbon. In an interview with Infobae, Argentina explained why, in his view, it made no sense for candidates in the October elections to make Portugal a possible model. And he knows what he's talking about because he's been living in Lisbon for 17 years.

The cristinistas slipped the idea of ​​the "Portuguese way", with the limit that their boss now in Cuba hardly talks about and she did not even say if she would be a candidate for the presidency, although the The recent publication of his book has been sincerely read by many as a confirmation of his candidacy. Scioli and Mbada, on the other hand, expressly sell this way, an alternative that theoretically avoids adjustments and focuses on growth and consumption.

Malamud, an unconventional political scientist who explains complex problems by appealing to the humor and irony – sometimes to the extreme – believes that Argentine politicians are being cheated – and cheated – as well. they persist in the idea that Argentina will be happy to follow the Portuguese way. As the data, graph that the adjustment imposed in Lisbon was much more difficult than that of the government of Fernando de la Rua, and clearly more powerful than the restrictions of the current administration, which is losing today elections if it does not control inflation.

– He speaks more and more frequently of the "Portuguese way" as an alternative to Argentina. Is there such a way?

– The "Portuguese way", if such a thing existed, was as follows: in 2010, Portugal had lost the ability to finance itself on the markets and had to ask for a bailout. The government of the center-left Socialist Party has called for the intervention of an integrated troika by the IMF, the European Union and the European Central Bank. As a result, he implemented an adjustment to reduce wages and raise taxes. And he lost the elections. The next government, a center-right alliance, deepened the adjustment to go "beyond the troika," in the words of Prime Minister Pedro Pbados Coelho. His government filled the program and lost power.

– Daniel Scioli thus describes "the Portuguese way": "We must go from an adjustment to a plan of growth and development, which Portugal has done successfully". Is it so simple?

– Portugal has implemented a formidable adjustment program: public wage reduction of between 20 and 25%, increase of unemployment from 8% to 18%, increase of taxes and freezing of the minimum wage. The so-called internal devaluation, which consists of reducing labor costs, and partly fortuitous circumstances, such as the failure of the Arab Spring, have partly reconquered growth. They expelled tourists from North Africa and directed them to the Mediterranean countries Europe There was no development plan.

– What common points do Portugal and Argentina have as a country and with what do they have nothing to do?

– Argentina and Portugal are similar in terms of their tax vulnerability, which has pushed them out of the markets and led to a financial bailout. But Portugal starts from above, by level of investment and stocks, and lack of monetary policy. The first helps to digest the fit, the second requires you to do it without devaluing.

– Is the Portuguese crisis of a few years ago comparable to the current crisis in Argentina? Or did they have different origins and developments?

– The fiscal vulnerability was similar, but Portugal had a problem, the lack of monetary policy. And a resource, the European Central Bank, the guarantor of last resort, that Argentina does not have.

– Sergio Mbada proposes the following: "We must rediscover the agreement with the IMF, propose an exit to the Portuguese and not to the Greeks, we must reduce the taxes, especially in the sectors of the consumption, the work, the retirees and exporters to generate income. " dollars authentic. "Again, is this the Portuguese way?

– Portugal has not discussed the agreement with the troika, it has strictly complied with it and beyond. It meant raising taxes and cutting wages, not the other way around.

– What were the Portuguese willing to do, things that you think the Argentinians have not done or will not do?

– The Portuguese, like the Greeks, have endured the adjustment. In fact, more peacefully than the Greeks. This is partly due to the personality of the Minister of Finance, Vítor Gaspar, who communicated the adjustment measures with a balsamic style and partly to the traditional sweetness of the Portuguese. But also emigration, a structural phenomenon, because the Portuguese emigrate even in times of growth, played the role of decompression valve.

– Who was Macri from Antonio Costa?

– The adjustment is initiated by the socialist party in Socrates, so he loses the elections and the conservatives deepen it with Pbados Coelho, who also ends up losing, because he wins the elections but his parliament is overtaken by a coalition of three leftist parties.

– Did he do the same thing as Macri? Was it harder, less difficult?

– I prefer to transmit the data before the notices. My nominal salary, representing the high public sector, has been reduced by 23% and the system has continued. From the Rua dropped 13%.

– Is the "Portuguese way", if any, sustainable outside the European Union?

– It is viable where there is one of two factors: adjustment buffers, which can be family support, unemployment benefits or emigration. The other possibility is to use more frightening alternatives, such as the exit of our convertibility or that of the euro in the European Union, which was precisely the fear that stopped the rebellion Greek.

– The Portuguese economic windfall, is it sustainable in time?

– The Portuguese economy is doing well, but it is fragile. It can be destabilized by an internal shock, such as the fall of a bank, recently occurred. Or by an external shock, the style of an Italian default or an oil crisis. But the fragility is not only Portuguese, but the southern half of the euro zone. That is to say that the eurozone is the fragile one.

– To what extent is it viable, if necessary, a "Cristina a la Portuguesa"?

– Cristina, or whoever else, would like to be Antonio Costa, nicknamed "the relaxing one". But if Macri is Socrates, the one who asked for the ransom in Portugal, Cristina would end up being like Pbados Coelho: the big fitter.

– If the "Portuguese Way" is not an alternative for Argentina, do you see another country or model in the world that can fall in love with politicians like Cristina, Mbada, Scioli or Lavagna? Or Macri himself …

– No. Argentina has two unusual features, which seem to be combined as unique: a dual economy and a bifurcated socio-economic structure in which consumers prefer a weak dollar, exporters prefer a strong dollar and both sectors are able to block the dollar. other, but not to impose your own project.

– The Portuguese center-left government has called for the intervention of an integrated troika at the IMF, the European Union and the European Central Bank. He therefore made an adjustment providing for a reduction of wages and an increase of the tax in order to make the elections lose. In sparing some aspects, this is very similar to the current situation of the Macri government, is not it?

– If history says that the successor of the "Portuguese macri" was "the great fit", why panperonismo insists on selling the "Portuguese way"?

– The statesmen are not obliged to know what they are talking about.

– What are the different scenarios that you see in this last step towards the elections?

– I answer with a joke that does not laugh. Do you know how they tell the democratic government that this is not for inflation? L & # 39; opposition

– In the current context, is UCR's strongest involvement in economic decisions a good sign?

– I do not imagine a favorable context in which the radicals think of the economy.