Spain closes the election campaign marked by the emergence of the far right

Spain has closed Friday the polarized campaign of Sunday's parliamentary elections between the calls of Socialist Government leader Pedro Sanchez to avoid the rise of the far rightwhich revolutionized the political landscape of the country and with which the conservatives would be willing to govern.

Almost residual in Spanish politics since the end of Francisco Franco's dictatorship in 1975, the far right could enter the Spanish Congress with the Vox party.

With harsh language against Catalan separatism, illegal immigration and feminism on the left, the latest polls gave this formation more than 10% of the vote – about 30 seats out of a total of 350 in the lower house – in 2016 barely collected 0.2%.

A scenario that socialists, favorite polls, used to mobilize their electorate. According to them, they could be separated by a possible agreement between the conservative Popular Party, the liberals of Ciudadanos and Vox, as they had already done in their stronghold of Andalusia at the beginning of the year.

"This certainty exists, that if next Sunday we add the three rights, we will have Pablo Casado [del PP] from president to Albert Rivera [de Ciudadanos] of companion and on the far right to control ", Sanchez sent a meeting to Madrid.

Sanchez said that a few hours after the fall of Casado, he was ready to rule with Vox.

"In the end, Vox and the citizens, who have 10 seats or 40, will have the influence they want to have to enter the government or to decide the nomination or the legislature." So, why are we going to walk on the pipe? between us, if what we need to do is to add up? ", said Casado in esRadio.

"We have to expel Sanchez, it's a national emergency," Rivera added at the closing rally in Valencia.

From Madrid, Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox, warned in a wonderful tone that Sunday would be decided "or the disintegration or historical continuity of our country (…) or the anti-Spain or Spain alive ".

Ten months after the motion of censure against his conservative predecessor, Mariano Rajoy, Sánchez is leading all polls.

But the governability is complicated in a Congress divided into two big blocks: on the one hand, the socialists of the PSOE and Podemos (radical left) and, on the other hand, the Partido Popular, Ciudadanos and Vox.

"The sums are very unlikely, one and the other," says Francisco Camas, Demographics office of Metroscopia, so that the votes of the Catalan and Basque regional parties can be decisive.

A difficult possibility but not completely ruled out by Sanchez would be an agreement with Ciudadanos, against what Pablo Iglesias, leader of Podemos and eager to rule with the Socialists, warned.

"It is obvious that the economic powers and the old sectors of the Socialist Party will bet on this agreement," Iglesias told his activists.

The uncertainty is great: there are four million undecided, says Camas, and a lot of volatility, especially right, engaged in a tough battle to lead the conservatives camp.

"There could be last-minute changes in party support that could affect the likelihood of different government options," said Antonio Barroso of Teneo Intelligence's firm.

Catalonia: central theme

Issues such as the economic downturn, pensions, the high unemployment rate (14.7% according to the latest data) or European uncertainties about Brexit were behind.

Instead, it centralized debates in Catalonia, a year and a half after the attempted secession in 2017, and with the trial for rebellion against twelve independentist leaders.

Coming to power with the support of Podemos, Catalan nationalists and Catalan separatists, Sánchez sought to appease the conflict and began negotiations with regional president Quim Torra.

Although the dialogue did not succeed (the supporters of independence knocked out Sánchez's budget, which called for this electoral advance), this rapprochement ignited the right that made it his main weapon. Thus, Casado accused Sánchez of "traitor", "criminal", "disloyal" and to be "a public danger for Spain".

Faced with Sanchez's dialogue, the right proposes to suspend regional autonomy, as Rajoy had done after the failure of the attempted secession and, in some cases, the illegalization of parties separatists.

These trainings could however be the key to re-elect Sanchez who reiterated them to be active and pbadive, which will not yield to their main requirement: a referendum of self-determination.

By Daniel Bosque and Álvaro Villalobos / AFP