Iran faces an uncomfortable challenge: showing weakness or provoking a war that will be lost

Bravado remained in that. They were two days of screaming in the air. For the moment Tehran he knows that there is no alternative and that which, according to his spokespersons, would be too expensive. Or accompany their threats of action or they will be diluted as quickly as their credibility. The first action, in addition, would condemn it. Iran could not sustain an unprecedented armed conflict in time with the United States and its Arab neighbors.

The Islamic administration has attempted to use a threat: block the pbadage of ships of all kinds by the Strait of Ormuz. This small sea corridor is only 33 kilometers wide, although large ships can barely travel three. Every time the tension is reborn, Mullah They insist on blocking it and this time it was no exception. About 30% of the world's crude is transported there, not just the L & # 39; Iran but also that of Saudi Arabia, Emirates Arabs, Barehin and others. By 2018, they were spending 17.4 million barrels a day there. It is also the liquefied gas route that exports Qatar.

The warning has generated nervousness in the markets. The value of the hydrocarbon has increased, but the rest of the producing countries have announced that they would guarantee the production and brokers they calmed down in part. Tehran He's angry with his neighbors. President Hbadan Rouhani He reproached them: "You, whose existence is in the shadow of the Islamic Republic of Iran, how can you tell Trump that if you reduce our crude oil exports to zero, will you compensate? Do you understand the consequences of this statement and that means that you are a definitive enemy of the Iranian people?"

The enmity promulgated by Rouhani This is not a novelty. The tension between them either. It is hundreds of years old. It is the one who faces Sunnis and Shiites from the seed of Islam.

After two days of angry declarations, the theocracy has lowered the volume of its cries. Your chancellor Mohammad Javad Zarif, warned that his nation "he is not looking for a confrontation"well in case it happens"will defend"Have you canceled the promised closure of the Strait of Ormuz? The blockade of maritime traffic could trigger a series of uncontrollable events for the regime. Not only should I confront United States and the Arabs, but they would also be under pressure from their own partners as China that he would need a resource located beyond the flag of the ship that will approach it from its ports. It is not yet clear whether Beijing will continue to buy from the ayatollah after the US announcement. He can cling to him to negotiate his own setbacks with Washington or use it to get a lower price of oil, as in Venezuela, whose desperate situation benefits.

"The threats to close the crossing affect the international community and undermine free trade. We are ready to react to any act of aggression"the commander said Josh Frey, spokesperson of the Fifth Fleet of the Navywho is responsible for stability in the waters of the sea Persian Gulf. Strictly speaking, since 1979, there have been only minor skirmishes or an attack on this strategic point. Iran has never tried blockade. Never crossed this red line.

One of the greatest experts on the reality of Half is and who knows the Iranian dynamics as little is Ely Karmon researcher International Institute for Combating Terrorism (TIC) of Herzliya, Israel. The academic also considers that the government of Mullah they will not dare to answer their threats: "I think there is a low probability that Iran will close the strait. This time, the reaction of the United States, under the pressure of their allies in the Gulf, could be a military attack, at least against their navy. It should also be kept in mind that the Saudis and Emirates may attack the Iranian oil fields"

At present, the US Navy is composed of 20 boats -portable, destroyers, cruises and more than 15 thousand men -shipped and on the earth- while waiting for their moment in the waters of the Kingdom of Bahrain. This fleet could multiply in case of shock in a few hours. In addition, the arrangement of drones would darken the sky in broad daylight.

Zarif take precautions. He warned that "accidents" could occur in the area of ​​tension likely to trigger a potential conflict, but he specified that they would not be motivated by his direction. Incomprobable. Iran shows its weakness as never before and fears a rush that could not be replicated.

He was also beyond his non-confrontational spirit. The diplomat offered his collaboration to Washington in the stability of afghanistan e Iraq. Apparently, today does not help. In addition to that, he encouraged an exchange of prisoners. "All those people who are in prison in the United States and who are requesting extradition … we think their accusations are false. The United States believes that the charges against these people (detainees) in Iran (too) are false. Do not discuss this. We are going to have an exchange. I am ready to do it and I have the authority to do it"he said Zarif, the same that offered members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard to the dictator Nicolás Maduro.

The option of triggering a fight with Israel it would not seem to be very precise either, although for that, it can evaluate the use of its weapon Lebanon, the terrorist group Hezbollah. However, the fluid relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu with Vladimir Putin This could cool this scenario. Will he Kremlin that your interests in Syria can be weakened by maintaining their agreements with Tehran? In this sense, the move of Jerusalem approach the former agent of the KGBWho would not want the extension of the alliance that he has with Khamenei beyond Damascus.

The command of the Ayatollah is afraid to rush. They suspect that several advisors Donald Trump They seek to impose a change of regime. The economy is drowning a large part of the population, especially the middle clbad: rising inflation (48% in 2018, only exceeded by Venezuela, South Sudan and Sudanand very close to Argentina), The depreciation of the currency and rising unemployment generate a dangerous badtail for the government. The blockade on exports imposed by Washington this will only strangle the finances of the weakened theocracy.

AT KarmonIn the event of a military confrontation, the oil producing countries would be particularly affected. "The damage would be mainly caused to the Gulf countries and the world in general, because of the rise in the price of oil. The United States could even benefit from this added value by selling its own crude on the international market. The Russians too"

The academic does not imagine a traditional theater of armed conflict, even if it was unleashed, it would be different from the last of the region. "I do not believe in total war, but in attacks directed against economic badets by both parties"In this arena Israel I would not feel the war: "It will not suffer directly, mainly because of the economic impact of the increase in the oil processing process"

Khamenei he knows these possibilities as well as little. None of the future scenarios could come out victorious. A conventional or surgical fight would destroy a precarious economy. On the contrary, it could result in a domino effect that nobody Tehran he will want to submit. And whose last record, nobody knows who he will knock out.