Spain votes under great fragmentation and with a lot of indecisive

Spain is preparing to live today one of the its general elections contested for decades, with a result difficult to predict and at least five parties from all political horizons with opportunities to enter the government.

Spain's historical bipartisanship has been dissolved and the struggle to gain power has been expanded, even though none would reach the majority in order to govern. The elections will be followed by long days of negotiations to form a coalition government, which will contribute to the political uncertainty that already exists in the country and in the rest of Europe. In addition, in less than a month, municipal elections will be held, which will slow down and make each movement study more thoroughly than during a game of failures, so as not to have any problems. 39, direct impact on 26M elections.

In a divided country, where the race is so contested and where there is a high percentage of undecided, no one is encouraged to predict a result. It is no longer, as in the past, nor the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers Party) or PP (People's Party). None was sufficiently up to the expectations of the Spaniards and this opened the door to parties like The citizens, can o VOX do not be minor characters but main actors in today's elections.

This is no longer center-left or center-right. The PSOE Pedro Sánchez He is the one who is looking to stay in the center, even though yesterday he opened the door to can and would accept a coalition government with the left-wing party led by Pablo Iglesiasalthough they do not reach the absolute majority

On the other hand, we find that the right-wing bloc formed by the conservative party, the liberal citizens and the extreme right Vox, can not, unsurprisingly, get the seats needed to govern.

In a country not used to political alliances, It is possible that these elections will end with the first coalition government of democracy. Even the candidates themselves believe that the majorities have died permanently and that the policy of blocks and alliances lived during the campaign establishes the map of the possible pacts.

After managing the two live TV debates almost seamlessly, Sanchez is the big favorite to win the elections tomorrow, although it is expected that the PSOE will obtain about 115 seats. The current head of the Spanish government, who came out of his ashes after losing the elections of 2015 and 2016, last Friday made the most multifaceted act of his campaign and insisted on the importance to obtain the necessary votes to obtain the majority.

"We live in a parliamentary democracy and winning does not mean governing. It will not be Monday that we will wake up with a married government, Vice President Rivera and the far right at the helm, "said the president on Friday.

Of the necessary votes, Sanchez did not hesitate to raise the possibility of governing with ministers of a party on your left as we can, although he knew that it would not allow him not to get the absolute majority and will have to seek outside support, such as Basque secessionists and Catalan nationalists

Neither one nor the other Pablo Iglesias hides that he wants to form an executive power with the PSOE. The head of Podemos, who during the reflection of Saturday, was watching films in the Sala Mirador de Madrid, accompanied by other candidates, aims to form a majority with the Socialists and obtain ministries for his left. With a weakened structure and many front-line defections, Iglesias no longer represents the same force that burst into the country after the 2009 crisis, and its participation seems at first to be more favorable to the PSOE than its own, although it is not the same. he came out very strong afterwards. the televised debates.

The law is all an uncertainty. The Popular Party is historically the main force, but it weakened after last year 's censure motion against former president Mariano Rajoy. Pablo Casado he will have to show that he can govern the party and, in his struggle to avoid losing right-wing voters to the growth of Citizens and Vox, he was open to negotiation with both parties.

But everything is lived in great uncertainty and the three forces dispute the undecided votes and those who were disappointed by the Sanchez government. They know the importance of the famous "vote useful", already well known, which can end with a big surprise Sunday night.

Despite the fact that the PP was open to citizens and to Vox, Albert Rivera or Santiago Abascal they want to be secondary participants in the government. The citizens would agree to govern with the PP – with Rivera as president – and the parliamentary support of Vox, as in Andalusia. For its part, Vox seeks to revolutionize Spain alone and to take advantage of the ultra-right current that exists in the world, dream of breaking the hump and prefers not to talk about forming a government with anyone.

What happened in Andalusia last December is an indication of what can happen today. The party of Santiago Abascal was the revelation in the regional elections of this province to obtain 12 deputies, who were the key so that the PP and the citizens form a coalition government which raises the Socialists in power after 36 years. They believe that this situation can be repeated tomorrow and they do not want to be the seconds of anyone, even if the numbers say the opposite.

With a speech similar to Marine Le Pen or Donald TrumpAbascal has burst into Spain with a flourishing policy around the world but still not taking force at the national level. The leader of the far right Spanish does not hide his ideas that scare many, such as the defense of the possession of weapons, a possible wall to stop immigration or abrogation of the law on protection against gender violence. He insists and repeats the word Spain and is reluctant to anything that concerns the separatist peoples. "The unity of Spain is neither discussed nor negotiated in a referendum," he told more than 10,000 people at the closing ceremony organized on Plaza de Colón, Madrid.

Just the situation in Catalonia is one of the central issues of these elections. Neither the economic slowdown, nor the high unemployment rate (14.7% according to the latest data) nor the European uncertainty with regard to Brexit have as much weight as any eventuality. new referendum.

But it is not only Abascal who has said a categorical no to the independence of Catalonia. Casado and Rivera both declared that they were against the vote and took advantage of the televised debates to accuse the current president of being an accomplice to the separation of Catalonia, which the leader of the PSOE has denied.

More than 36 million Spaniards are qualified to vote, but it is thought that many will not go and many others will decide their vote at that time. It is the uncertainty that reigns today in Spain. And that can lead to surprises.