A consolidated socialism against a right with chances (and a possible surprise)

With an electorate polarized 50% by ideological blocks and forecasts, the definition of who could form a government could be delayed for several weeks, 36 million Spaniards and Spaniards are ready today to vote in the early presidential elections in a climate of expectation and uncertainty due to the fragmentation of the vote.

This scenario is unprecedented in the history of democracy born with the constitution of 1978. After the economic crisis, Podemos (left) was born, but with the territorial crisis generated by the claims of independence of the Catalonia, Vox has emerged, a far-right party pbadivity of traditional politicians who "endanger the unity of Spain".

All investigations ensure that Pedro Sanchez, leader of the PSOE, is the favorite, with real chances to reach the majority in Congress in coalition with Podemos and other nationalist and minor separatist parties. The main opponent, Pablo Casado, would be very far from snatching first place, although he also has the conditions to join the government with Citizens and Vox.

The main question is how much Santiago Abascal will get, since his training is demonized by the progressives and the left, because of his anti-abortion positions and his sympathy for the Franco regime, which was still dormant, but without political expression competitive. Their proposals seem to have touched all social sectors, including the lowest and punished by the difficult economic situation, but they dare not express it in the polls.

In addition, he was not able to participate in the debate because the electoral committee considered that it did not correspond to him because he did not have a parliamentary representation modifying the criteria. In fact, Podemos and other minority parties have been able to do this in the past.

To erase this data, how much Vox will finally go out is the key to knowing if the right headed by Casado will be able to governSince the conclusion that took place yesterday in Madrid, the leader of the PP announced that the country was preparing to form a coalition with this party and with Citizens, led by Albert Rivera.

Although the PP also has doubts about the seats that the PP will get, the party that comfortably led this ideological spectrum and that with the launch of a new party leader, isologo and the performance on stage in January, he seemed able to overcome the slump that had followed the traumatic departure of Mariano Rajoy via a motion of censure.

In the stalking who transcended yesterday there is nothing to suggest that the PP will achieve the 100-seat goal proposed by this party's strategists, despite the installation of very charismatic characters like the case of Cayetana Alvarez de Toledo, Hispano-Argentine media it goes from candidate to the first post in Barcelona.

On the other hand, Sánchez, the president who arrived at the government after a daring maneuver that surprised Rajoy 10 months ago, when Podemos and the separatists formed a majority to move him to Parliament, managed to consolidate the socialism. They had run out of electricity for 8 years and the recovery of Moncloa gave him new impetus., to the point that it could reach 140 seats, which is not enough to reach the majority (176 are needed), but well above the 85 that the PSOE achieved in 2016.

If survey forecasts are made, Sanchez would also have the opportunity to accept citizensthe liberal and democratic training that shares, among other things, the PSOE's policies on gender. In fact, according to opinion polls, 800,000 voters are undecided between the two parties. The socialist has always left the door open to a coalition.

However, Rivera strongly insisted on such an eventuality, repeating to the right and left that "my goal is to bring Sanchez to the opposition, we and him with Iglesias, we do not go to the corner from the street". Since his party is criticized for his "transfuguismo" – the practice of extracting political leaders from other groups -, some still think that the possibility of such a coalition is intact.

Among other things, because consulted in the surveys, Voters in the center would prefer citizens to join the PSOE in case socialism gets the alleged votes, would chase the dreaded alliance with Podemos.

That's why Pablo Iglesias moderated his speech in an unusual way, appearing in both debates as an ardent defender of the constitution, of which he has read several articles. In addition, he was condescending with his rivals, asking them not to throw each other under the nickname "liar", in a democratic moderator role that will undeniably relieve the PSOE critics when it faces negotiations to form a government.

What will be voted today in schools across the country is 350 congressional seats, elected in 50 provinces plus Ceuta and Melilla, and 208 Senate seats in 59 constituencies. The vote for Congress is the key because it is there that the government is formed. The Senate is the control chamber and it is up to you to approve or reject the measures approved by Parliament, because the laws must be supported by both.

In Spain, you can also vote by mail, if this is expressed in advance. Last week, the ranks were very long in front of the offices to cast the vote, and even they worked by room, incorporating even more staff to meet expectations. Of course, Spanish citizens residing abroad can also vote in polling stations specially prepared in consulates.

The voting calendar ends At 20 and 23 hours (Spanish time), there could already be an almost definitive trend of the electoral scene. Voting is done by ballot, counted manually and transmitted electronically, which facilitates temporary control. The final version takes a few more days and it would be May 4th.