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That the plan is already dead would not be all: the rising dollar could accelerate inflation in April and May. Macri has no future if he does not master these two variables.
And on top of that, on Friday, a New York Court of Appeal dismissed an appeal from Argentina and released a judge from that same city, Loretta Preska, for it to start the trial. for the expropriation of YPF, in 2012, during the second term of the successful writer Cristina Kirchner. Preska inherited the court that occupied Thomas Griesa, the man who managed for more than 15 years the judgments of the vulture funds for the failure to pay the debt. Obstinations of recent history. It could cost the country $ 3 million.
The government then discussed in Olivos at the Vaca Muerta table how to accelerate the production of gas and oil and determine the fastest way to eliminate administrative barriers to exports. "YPF can not miss an export day," said President Macri, still in his forceful version. The working chambers and unions have again questioned the extension of the decree authorizing the import of equipment used for the defense of Argentine labor. But oil companies have defended the need to move into a regime allowing them to make the leap and grow on a large scale, as in the Eagle Ford model in Texas. The national government and the Neuquén government accompanied them. This is just beginning, they agreed, and when that starts, "all the domestic industry will not be able to cope," it was said there.
Talking about this region, it's like talking about another country. Maybe that's it. In the midst of the crisis and vertigo that added to these hours the markets coexist different Argentinas. One of them is unconventional hydrocarbons. Fragmentation as a sign of time, the phenomenon that the Pro has been talking about since its origins, can also manifest itself in this way.
The back of the YPF in the New York courts came to close a week that had long inhabited the government's nightmares. It was precipitated by a sum of factors, some self-inflicted, others more predictable. The result was another sign of the perplexity aroused around the world by Argentine leaders.
Businessmen demanded that the president refuse his candidacy. This relationship is one of the strangest and most indecipherable of this time.
The first signal arrived on Holy Thursday, ten days ago, after the government presented its freeze price and tariff program. In the absence of markets in Argentina for the holidays, the answer to this plan came from abroad: the country risk rating by Argentine bonds reached the next day a record of the Macri era and dropped to 7% of the shares of Argentine companies that are listed on Wall Street. There are those who attribute this reaction to the investigation of the consulting firm Isonomía, known that same Thursday and that gave Cristina Kirchner a large advantage over Macri at an ultimate vote. Is it the laboratory of Jaime Durán Barba that divulged this measure to stir up the fear of a return of Christianity? On Tuesday, the departure of "Sincerely", Senator Kirchner's book, his marketing and his advance, was announced. What happened in the future is colder: the dollar and the country risk entered a roller coaster that only stopped on Friday.
The dollar has climbed nearly 10% since then. An unexpected and fatal leap for the price program agreed between the government and companies for a list of essential commodities, food products, sensitive to fluctuations in the US currency. That the plan is already dead would not be all: the dollar escape could accelerate the April inflation index, which was already to be high, and the month of May, in which the government believed that it was planned to consolidate its decline. The president has no future if he does not master these two variables.
The roads are narrowing and the weather begins to squeeze Macri. Today, he expects a setback in PASO Santa Fe, where his candidate could be fourth. The main voices of the government had to leave daily to confirm that he would go to his reelection. Eyes riveted on Maria Eugenia Vidal, the businessmen demanded that the president unsubscribe from his candidacy. This relationship will be studied as one of the strangest and most indecipherable of this time.
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