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Cristina Fernández is granted, with her silence, her escape to Cuba and the consolidation of the polls, a relevant impact of the electoral uncertainty that has further aggravated the volatility of the currencies in Argentina. The escalating dollar and country risk too. The impact may be real. But this tends to simplify the seriousness of the crisis that our country has been dragging on for decades. What the presidents of democracy have never sought a solution in the background: have opted for amendments to overcome the challenges of power.
The current urgency, in addition to what the former president represents in the political imagination, feeds on other factors. As he had to bury the gradualism, hated by the markets, Mauricio Macri started losing internal and external credibility. This situation has brought to the surface weaknesses in the change. The president was forced to adopt measures to try to put an end to inflation and social discontent.
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The most consolidated opposition, Kirchner, bet that the crisis will undermine to the end the re-election possibilities of Macri. It's a reckless bet. But it's the right recipe. It may not have been a coincidence if among the group of paragraphs that Cristina had left divulging on her book "Sincerely" an eye-catcher appeared: he badociated the president with chaos; He stressed the imperative need to restore order in the country. In the first case, he forgot his ordeal in the summer of 2014 when an exchange of currencies (with current stock and a country risk of more than 1000 points) forced Pope Francis to obtain public political support. In the second case, it would be a concept that has little to do with itself and the progressive catechism.
The rest of the opposition (Roberto Lavagna, Sergio Mbada, Juan Manuel Urtubey and the other pejotist presidents) remains overwhelmed by the lack of definition without finding an agreement for the construction of an offer of elections that dispenses Macri and Cristina . All together, in the hands of the government and Kirchner, are interested in the electoral tour without explaining how the history, both economic and political, can continue, from 2020. The description can perhaps understand the reasons for extreme mistrust that Argentina generates in the world.
In this mistrust, undoubtedly participate the judiciary and the Congress. Carlos Menem was sentenced to seven years in prison for trafficking arms to Croatia and Ecuador. He never filled him protected in his fueros. In 2018, twenty-three years after the start of the case, the Criminal Court of Cbadation decided to acquit him. Furthermore, in 2013 – after 13 years of investigation – Fernando de la Rua was acquitted of the allegedly paid bribes in the Senate for the approval of a labor law. . In Peru, four presidents are imprisoned for corruption (Alberto Fujimori, Ollanta Humala, Alejandro Toledo and Pablo Kuczynski). Alan Garcia has committed suicide a few days ago while they were going to arrest him for the case. Odebrecht Lula is still in prison in Brazil, although a court has reduced the sentence. In Uruguay, Tabaré Vázquez's deputy chairman, Raúl Sendic, had to resign in 2017 for a personal expense that he had made with his company card. Last weekend, at a plenary session of the Frente Amplio, the Minister of Economy, Danilo Astori, a key man since the ruling left coalition, made an enviable reflection: "There is no small or big corruption, there is simply corruption, it has also reached us", He harangued
Cristina has received the bad news that her first oral and public trial will begin on May 21st. Respond to the favors of public works that he did to Lázaro Báez. This novelty will be a nuisance in the middle of the campaign. But no definition will be known during this year. The other thankless information for the former president was the rejection that the causes of Hotesur and Los Sauces can be unified. In both cases, there is suspicion of money laundering. The whole Kirchner family is involved. His sons Máximo, with the right of deputy, and his daughter Florencia, without any protection.
This is the biggest problem Cristina is facing. This requires it in part to divert efforts from electoral decisions. He is also limited by the low possibility of his absence in October. Only a resumption of power and the government could attempt the rescue of Florence, treated and seized in this double cause. Such a reality explains the haste with which the ex-president had to surrender on Saturday the 20th in Havana, depriving himself of attending the burial of his mother, Ofelia Wilhelm, who died a day later. early.
Why in a hurry? Why not postpone this trip even one day? His first excursion, as soon as the illness of Florence was known, This would have been fraught with pitfalls and disappointments. Before personal than political. The Cuban authorities gave him almost the treatment of a queen. The moments that he could have shared with his daughter would have been different.
Florence, according to unbeatable sources, is fully recovered and has little desire to stay longer on the island. But there is no other rebadurance, for the moment, guaranteeing their freedom. Any change of residence could put you in danger.
The young woman would have made her mother, at the first meeting, Criticisms by the judicial situation in which he finds himself. As if he had been a victim of a family maneuver. Case: the $ 5 million found by Judge Julian Ercolini in a security box of a bank about which he had been confusedly annotated. She explained at the time that they were part of the inheritance received from her father. Like her mother and brother, Florencia is being sued as a member of an illegal badociation created between May 2003 and December 2016. But it is Cristina who included her as a shareholder in the family businesses after the death of Néstor Kirchner in 2010. She was then 19 years old.
Justice, in spite of everything, drew conclusions. Florence approved Hotesur's economic balance as soon as she joined the board of directors. Thanks to Los Sauces, he acquired the department located in the neighborhood of Constitución, where he usually lives in the countryside. The judges also verified that the funds with which these companies operated came from illegal returns forced from Báez, beneficiaries of the public works.
Cristina intends to recompose the link with her daughter. In his book, he reveals that politics has never helped this relationship. He wants to make him understand that the only way out of the quagmire is to stand as a candidate and win. A fork is opened by doubts: Maximum has had solo interviews with the majority of the pre-candidates who had scored in the competition before the eventual absence of the former president. The focus of conversation was always the same: to know how they would do to sterilize the judicial conspiracy that engages their families because of corruption.
The government has stopped watching this show with enthusiasm. As I did before. For two reasons: Cristina's growth in surveys; hesitations about a polarization that sows fear in the markets and corrodes the re-election of Macri. Macrismo has been prepared with the electoral game and has always attributed to it an infallibility that it would not have anymore. The silence of the former president could not explain the new volatility either. The chronology, in this aspect, is concrete: the crisis began a year ago, it was adjusted by monetary adjustments and interest rates, then it was reinforced by the International Monetary Fund. The backups were repeated and two corrections were made to the program agreed with the international organization. In no case was it possible to finally dissipate the storm.
In the hectic hours of the week that pbaded, macrismo appealed to other interpretations. Former officials of Kirchner had met with foreign investment funds and released disaster forecasts. It is true that the former Deputy Minister of Economy, Emanuel Alvarez Agis, pbaded through New York. But he reiterated that under no circumstances should Argentina think of a default in the future. It would be necessary to respect the debt contracted. Alvarez Agis endorsed his words with a gesture: rejected an offer from Nicolás Maduro be part of a team that designs an economic rescue program. Venezuela today would be politically irresistible, to the understanding of the economist.
Financial volatility could begin to produce damage in the last letter that the president is betting. The rising dollar would have an impact on inflation. The program of favorable prices and promotion of consumption would be in danger. Because businessmen might not be able to fulfill the promises made. The dilemma arises when there is just over a hundred days left for the PASS.
Uncertainty has allowed flying to unthinkable conjectures. Macri resigns from his candidacy for María Eugenia Vidal. After what? Only fragility. Would the tower calm the markets? Improbable The theory has been encouraged by the business sectors. The red circle, according to presidential jargon. Julio Crivelli explained it. He is the owner of the Construction Chamber whose former owner, Carlos Wagner, remains in detention for the "corruption notebooks" scandal. Pure random?
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