Elections in Spain: The PSOE won with a big difference, the PP has collapsed and the majority has moved away from the extremes

Polled close to 100% of the votes, the PSOE managed to become the most voted party with 122 seats, which is not enough to get the 176 seats needed to get the majoritybut it puts him in a strong position to form the government in an alliance that, in principle, would be with Podemos and different separatist formations. Currently, it has only 84 seats.

The polls were very close to the electoral result, especially as regards socialism. On the other hand, even if it was badumed that the PP would be in second place, he had to reach at least 90 seats (they were expecting 100 seats), but he has barely managed 66, far from the 137 he has under the current Congress legislature.

Citizens, who under the leadership of Albert Rivera played to sweep the PP while a hegemonic party of the right-wing bloc had achieved its goal, and he is in the 57 seats, exceeding the 36 he has at the moment. We can, however, fall to 35, while he was 67 in the 2016 election.

So, the first thing that is possible to conclude is that Pedro Sánchez has achieved his third miracle. In the middle of the dissolution that provoked the emergence of the indignant Podemos, who had renounced socialism for 8 years, became the party's general secretary with minimal internal support. And, 10 months ago, he promoted an unprecedented motion of censure by which he took control of the government, which allowed him to muster the necessary strength to position himself in the face of these elections.

Sanchez's successful strategy has several causes. We have a name and surname and he calls himself Iván Redondo, the young expert in political communication who comes from the PP and has won the trust of the Socialist, who was convinced of a way that few people understood but that was more than effective.

Sanchez went to the elections by moving away from the separatists with whom he had come to the government and suggesting he make an alliance with Ciudadanos. In the debatesfinally, he had to deny it because of the categorical refusal of Rivera to face a coalition with the PSOE: "with them, I do not go to the corner of the street".

The second success was in the hands of Rivera, who sits comfortably in third place a few places away from the PP, demonstrating that his strategy was also very professional and measured, betting on rural areas heavily influenced by the distribution of the "upside" system, a quotient of a distribution of seats that benefits sparsely populated or "empty Spain". Rivera failed only in the second debate, when he overcame his critical positioning right and left, realizing a performance that was no longer surprising and that seemed forced.

By the way, the big loser is Pablo Casado, who in January seemed to be the one who would bring the PP back to power and, in turn, defeat citizens with less than ten seats. We will have to badyze what is wrong, the candidate who has not managed to position himself as president or the strategy of adopting the most aggressive program of Vox so as not to lose votes for the right. Maybe just that the PP is no longer the party that best represents the Spanish right.

Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Podemos, is not very well out either. The PSOE was effective in recovering the left votes and Podemos lost more than 15 seats, although the candidate made great efforts to moderate his speech last week as the electorate was increasingly placed at the center. from the list. ideological spectrum, although this did not happen to him.

The fiasco, however, was Santiago Abascal, of Vox. Of course, he did not have a seat and he is now 23, which represents a huge leap forward in terms of political representation. But as in this young party was expected between 40 and 70 seats, and there were even some who spoke of 90, a number like this one obtained seems too little for it to be considered a success.

Now we have to see how the PSOE government. Among the constitutionalists, there is the fear that a new coalition with the independence movement will revive the separatist vocation that undermined the Spanish pact of 1978 and jeopardized the unity of Spain.

There is also fear of forgiveness for those found guilty of justice for violating the Constitution. In fact, it was the central motive of the right block campaign. "You have the word of indult printed on your forehead," Rivera said more than once in Sánchez during presidential debates.

The current president had the power to avoid pronouncing on the subject, saying that "it is not appropriate for me to forestall the decision of the Supreme Court of Justice, because justice is independent", and j & So I continued to make a wink to independence until the last moment, to the fury of constitutionalists.

The only thing clear is that, as the polls said, what has been consolidated in Spain, it is the political fragmentation, as it is the case in most European democracies. In addition, as in other EU countries, the far right has achieved significant parliamentary representation, although very far from forming a government by itself.

Perhaps the least we expected was that the majority of the electorate opted for moderation. More than 70% of those who voted for the PSOE are not separatists and certainly not all 100% of those who voted for Citizens, PP and Vox. This does not mean that there is no danger of fragmentation of Spain. What is at stake is that voters demand that the solutions implemented be removed, both those who call for the removal of autonomy, such as Vox, and those who advocate the break with Spain , such as Esquerrra Republicana of Catalonia

Although the challenges of that time do not stop there. The PSOE should react to unemployment around 15% and a stagnant economy, between so many worries that live the Spaniards and Spaniards, without discarding the agenda more and more demanding in terms of gender and fears generated by uncontrollable immigration.

Whatever it is, we will have to wait a few days, maybe even a few weeks, until Sanchez organizes his coalition and aligns Spain on a present complex, for which his population is overloaded. It is enough that the leaders ignore extremes and consolidate in moderation, as the majority wishes.