In the Spanish elections won the logic

Sunday's elections in Spain were closely watched by those seeking to confirm their theories on the direction of European democracy. The unfinished result made it clear that no one was wrong, but showed that in general the old left-right political paradigm is still alive and that both sides can win according to their traditional strengths.

A European election after another, political fragmentation has made country governance difficult and more and more complex coalitions are needed; Spain was a perfect example of this trend. The center-left political forces have had difficulties everywhere and the Spanish Socialists, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, have failed to obtain the majority, even in spite of the huge negative evaluations that drag their historical rival, the popular party. (PP) left center. The resurgence of the far right populist has continued and even in Spain, where the anti-immigrant sentiment is weaker than in any other part of Europe, an extreme right-wing party , Vox, is surprisingly well behaved in the polls.

Well, all this is true. Although the participation of Socialists in Parliament increased considerably – from 85 posts in 2016 to 123 – the party won only 28.7% of the vote. The PP occupies a distant second place with 16.7%. The fragmentation implies that it will be difficult for Sanchez to quickly form a majority in the government. Even for a minority, he might need the help of separatist Catalans, who were the first cause of the early elections by refusing to support Sanchez's budget proposal.

In addition, Vox managed to reach Parliament. This is the first time for a radical right-wing force since the last ally of Francisco Franco, who lost his seat in parliament in 1982. Sanchez could be determined to remove the remains of Franco from his sumptuous mausoleum, located near Madrid, but the dictator's spirit will remain alive (with some modern restrictions imposed) across the 24-member Vox of the Lower House of Parliament, with 350 seats.

On the other hand, if one wanted to argue that the establishment parties can successfully defeat the nationalist populists if they adopt a position with principles about the problems and choose leaders charismatic, the performance of the socialists will also allow it. Sanchez, telegenic and persuasive during the campaign, risked demanding elections when the right-hand combined forces had more votes than the left and that a clear winner came out, thanks in part to Spanish electoral legislation which rewards the winner with extra seats. the parliament. Vox got only 10.2% of the vote, less than comparable parties got in other Western European countries.

"This is what is happening everywhere: Social Democracy is the force against the right!", Katarina Barley, Minister of Justice and the main candidate of the German Democrats in the forthcoming European elections, said on Twitter, congratulating Sánchez for his victory. .

A non-partisan badysis of the result, however, would suggest slightly different conclusions. Spain – like almost every other country – has a similar number of voters on the left and the right. About 11.2 million Spaniards supported the Socialists and their likely partners in the coalition, the populist leftist Podemos force; Just under 11.2 million people voted for the PP, the Liberal Citizens Party and Vox, which would have formed a coalition if they had obtained a combined majority. In 2016, with fewer voters, 9.5 million people supported the Socialists and Podemos, while 11 million voted for the PP and the citizens.

The breakdown of traditional bipartite systems does not mean that the division between right and left has disappeared. This only implies that voters on each side have a wider menu of more specific options. At present, the right-wing vote in Spain is more equitably divided between liberals, conservatives and populist nationalists than when the PP was the umbrella of the three convictions. In addition, Sanchez's victory came about, largely, at the expense of Podemos, who lost 15 seats.

Besides the charisma and skills of the Prime Minister's campaign, the generosity of the Sánchez government could explain both the redistribution and the increase in the number of voters. The minimum wage has increased by 22%. As a result, the traditional leftist method of buying votes with social spending seems to continue to work. Now, Sanchez will try to cement his victory with more gifts: increases in pensions and benefits and increased spending for science and education.

The current political fragmentation in Europe is only a problem when established parties are reluctant to form teams with the populists on their side and try to exclude them from the coalitions in power. In Germany, for example, the scary nationalism of the Alternative for Germany (AfD, by its abbreviations in German) rejects it as a partner of the Christian Democratic Union of Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the Communist legacy of Die Linke, the party of the far left. makes it difficult for the Social Democrats to team up with them at the national level. The result is a great uncomfortable coalition between the center-right and the center-left.

In Spain, traditional parties do not seem to hesitate to forge alliances with other forces. This is also the case in other European countries: in Austria and since this month in Estonia, established center-right parties have joined the populist nationalists, and in Portugal, the prosperous socialist government is supported in Parliament by the far left.

These alliances are not necessarily more stable than the big coalitions of centers, but, at least in some cases, they may make more sense when it comes to problems and policies, precisely because the majority of voters will only change loyalty within their own interests. left or right side. A united right would have crushed Catalan separatism and would have struggled to adjust the budget, but for now, this will not be the case. Sanchez will seek allies to help make Spain a more socialist path, after years of austerity, and cold strains with secessionist Catalonia, much to the relief of Catalan and foreign investors.