The time of Spanish politics: the new scenario requires negotiations to obtain stable majorities

With nearly 100% of the votes counted and in the absence of incorporation in the voting week (rare, unfortunately) coming from abroad, we can tackle the main keys of the 28A elections.

To situate ourselves correctly, we must remember how we have arrived so far. This is to say that our appointment with the polling stations on Sunday meets the call of early elections due to the impossibility for the government Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) of D & C Approve the general state budgets.

A government that, for the first time in recent Spanish democratic history, is the result of the success of a no-confidence motion of the previous government chaired by Mariano Rajoy (PP). Never before have motions of censorship flourished and, at most, had been erected into a "vast" free and free pre-election place to position itself as an alternative government.

Much of the success of the aforementioned censure motion should be sought in the political instability created after the 2015 elections, in which neither PP nor the PSOE could count on sufficient support for the inauguration of their candidates. In fact, the PP did not try, rejecting this possibility after the failure of Pedro Sánchez in his investment attempt.

Whatever the case may be, this has provoked – also for the first time in our recent political history – the forced calling of elections in 2016, after which the scenario has undergone only a few changes. On this occasion, Mariano Rajoy (PP) had obtained the support of Parliament for taking office, which formed the government.

Well, this period that opens with the 2015 elections draws some of the main political features that seem to be confirmed today:

In the first place, these elections begin to break the system of two major political parties that previously dominated Spanish politics. Imperfect bipartisanship (also called "two-and-a-half year system", for the role played by minor formations such as CiU, PNV or CC) played in the early years by the UCD and the PSOE, or later by the PSOE and the PP it will show its first symptoms of weakness. The emergence of two new political parties, Podemos and Ciudadanos, will weaken them and, to a large extent, reveal some internal and external weaknesses.

And, secondly, the need for agreements to form a government with actors whose behavior is new will reveal their weaknesses in the coalition: they did not want to share power, nobody wanted to share it with them.

All this in a context where the emergence of the so-called "Catalan problem" after 1 October 2017 will be solved with the intervention of Catalan autonomy through the application – also for the first time in our history – of the Article 155 of the Constitution. and the criminal prosecution of a problem of a political nature.

We see how Spanish politics is developing on an increasingly complex playing field. The alternation within the Andalusian government, largely thanks to the emergence of ultra-right VOX training, will be the first symptom of a political scenario in recomposition.

Thus, the elections of Sunday 28A arise in terms of struggle between two major poles: the justification of the validity of the socialist government led by Pedro Sanchez, against the forced recomposition of the conservative right after his removal from office in 2018.

The election results confirm the risky gamble of Pedro Sánchez to anticipate elections in a context similar to that described: the increase in the number of votes and seats (from 85 to 123) gives him back control of the political agenda, with Greater room for maneuver and comfort than Podemos and its confluences are dropping considerably (from 71 to 42 seats).

In the other pole, we find a fragmented right in three competing options that, according to the data, leaves a great victim: the PP, as well as its new leader, Pablo Casado. The loss of more than half of the seats (137 to 66) and more than 3 and a half million votes places them a short distance from their main competitor, Ciudadanos. The popular also lose their representation in the Basque Country and almost in Catalonia, where they have only one seat in the district of Barcelona.

The big beneficiaries of this decomposition are the citizens, going from 32 to 57 seats, and VOX, which accesses the Congress with 24 seats. The problem, however, is that this correlation of forces does not achieve any of its objectives, the principal having enough parliamentary strength to form a government.

Finally, we must not forget that non-state parties have been, are and all seem to indicate that they will remain relevant elements to guarantee governance. ERC wins the elections in Catalonia for the first time after the Franco dictatorship, with more than a million votes. Junts per Catalunya manages to contain the regression provided by the polls and gives only one seat. The PNV improves its votes and wins a seat, while EH Bildu and CCa-PNC obtain double results with 4 and 2 seats respectively.

In this scenario, the challenge remains the same as the one we mentioned earlier: the articulation of a solid parliamentary majority that guarantees not only the formation of a government, but also its survival.

For this, the PSOE must deploy a negotiation strategy in a very complex context: in less than a month, the Spaniards will be called again at the polls, in which we will choose our representatives in the European Parliament, the councilors of our municipalities and twelve . The autonomous communities will renew their parliamentary bademblies and therefore their governments.

It is not difficult to imagine that a coalition negotiation will be influenced by a multi-level dynamic in which a slight movement within the board can trigger an earthquake at the regional and / or local level , with which such a negotiation seems to us complicated ballot for both the PSOE and especially for the leaders of Podemos and its confluences, Citizens, and even possibly for ERC.

To make matters worse, remember that the new Cortes Generales (Congress of Deputies and Senate) are constituted on May 21, just five days before the European, regional and local elections, and it is precisely at this time there we will see the concretion of the first results of the negotiation during the election of the members of the respective tables.

As can be seen, the new political scenario will require players with greater skills, greater bargaining power and a strong desire to build stable agreements. After all, do politics.

Josep Maria Reniu Vilamala: Professor of Political Science and Administration at the University of Barcelona