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About 10 hours after the announcement of the Juan Guaidó on the "release" of the leader of the opposition Leopoldo Lopez, little has changed in Venezuela from Nicolás Maduro: neither battalions full of wounded soldiers have joined the popular "rebellion", nor streets full of opponents ready to reach the palace of Miraflores to put an end to what the president of parliament and "president in charge" calls " l & # 39; spoofing ". And much less, the Chavez regime has fallen, which is still standing, although health is something frosty.
With the "liberation" of López – it is fair to say that he was under house arrest and that it was not very difficult to break this isolation in a country where Guaidó between himself and leaves Venezuela while he has a warrant for arrest – the leader The opposition has sought to spark a coup in a besieged resistance, which had already failed to encircle Maduro when he was appointed President in charge of the National Assembly, in January, or when he tried to distribute the humanitarian aid collected in Colombia, Miami and Curacao
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All with strong international support and steady pressure from the United States on the regime, which still manages to retain the adhesions of Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua, but which has added support from more important players on the international scene, no Only political but economic, key for a country devastated by hyperinflation and scarcity: Russia, Turkey and, in a way, also China.
Despite Guaidó's call and the insinuating statements of John Bolton – the national security adviser to Donald Trump's "hawk" – asking the army to revolt against Maduro, there was not a single high command or an intermediate command having an influence on the troops who took a step forward to recognize the Speaker of Parliament as the legitimate President of Venezuela.
There are no authoritarian or democratic regimes in the recent history of Latin America who fell out of favor just because of popular pressure. If most of the armed forces do not remove the carpet or are not satisfied, little can change. That's what happened with Alfredo Stroessner in Paraguay, with Abdalá Bucaram and Lucio Gutiérrez in Ecuador, with Alberto Fujimori in Peru, Manuel Zelaya in Honduras, Jorge Serrano Elías in Guatemala and even Raoul Cedrás in Haiti . All were dragged into ostracism when the generals turned their backs on them.
In other words, the Nicaraguan regime of Daniel Ortega, who has resisted for a year the demonstrations at the point of repression, the paramilitary in the streets and blind arrests of opponents. The same Maduro manual, which this time, despite the 60 wounded and the 11 arrested, seems to have taken care not to trigger a blind repression by the security forces or "colectivos", who regularly terrorize the demonstrations. from the opposition and they shoot to kill under cover of covered faces.
Maduro's military support is essential, but this is not the only step that will allow him to stay in power. It is undeniable that even in spite of the collapse of the economy that strikes Chávez and his opponents, the regime enjoys a respectable support in sectors of society that live from the dream of the "revolution" Bolivarian "inaugurated 20 years ago.
Although it is still too early to imagine how will evolve this Guaidó attempt, move that will have more impact on the media abroad than the political efficiency in Venezuela, it seems clear that Maduro has not been defeated and that he knows how to go on the offensive. He has already cut opposition media programs or international networks, he will not hesitate to "selectively suppress" the opposition and mobilize its bases, while saving time, to looking for the pbadage of the storm. The 25 soldiers who revolted in the morning requested asylum at the Brazilian Embbady and Lopez went into the Chilean embbady. Guaidó, meanwhile, as the leader of an opposition who fails to hear behind a clear goal, must continue to beg for the support of the barracks.
I followed minute by minute coverage of the situation in Venezuela:
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